Race 9 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday, January 14 | Post Time 5:22 PM Eastern

Fifth Season Stakes | Purse $150,000 | One Mile | Four Year Olds and Upward

Overview:

The early pace in this one mile race could be hotly contested, and hot, because Runnin’ Ray (2) has been first or second after a half-mile has been run in 10 of his last 12 races, because Hello Hot Rod (4) led from start to finish in two of his last three races and led from the start before tiring to fourth in the other, because Dreamer’s Disease (5) has led from start to finish in his last two races, both wins around two-turns and because Seize the Night (7) earned his ONLY win, in his most recent race, leading from start to finish. That makes the race tough for morning line favorite Ginobili (8) to win, not only because he’s drawn outside all the other “early” speed types but also because he has been first or second after a half-mile in each of his last five races, all since adding blinkers.

Top contenders:

With the fast and contested early pace in mind, three horses appear to have good shots to succeed. Among that trio, Silver Prospector (10) has to be talked about first as he opens at double digit odds. Silver Prospector has run nine times at Oaklawn in his 24 race career, winning once and placing once so you might think he prefers other tracks as the majority of his $1.2 million in earnings has come elsewhere. That is not the case, as he earned the biggest win in his career over this track. That win came three years ago in the Southwest Stakes with a then career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure. One year later he finished second in the Oaklawn Handicap here in a huge effort when second to a six length winner, also earning a 107 figure. Silver Prospector then lost six more races in a row but showed his top form one more time last May when victorious at this mile trip in the Steve Sexton Mile, earning a new career-best 112 which is the best figure earned by any horse in this field. Rested since a poor effort last October, the reason I believe Silver Prospector can return to form good enough to win is the fact that he puts on blinkers for the very first time, and that change resulted in a very fast half-mile workout six days ago which was the second best of 87 on the day. Additionally, Silver Prospector won the Steve Sexton from the outside post in a field of nine, similar to the outside post he gets in this race, and he closed into a fast pace in that race, similar to the one he will get courtesy of need-the-lead types Hello Hot Rod, Dreamer’s Disease and Seize the Night. If the assessment is correct the equipment change as well as returning to Oaklawn means Silver Prospector may be able to rebound to top form, and he could post the upset and win this year’s Fifth Season Stakes.

Soy Tapatio (1) really came into his own after changing trainers to Robertino Diodoro last summer. His first race for Diodoro was a six and one-half length win in the Manitoba Mile Stakes, earning a career-best 107 figure. Since then Soy Tapatio has won two of four while losing by a neck on the wire in another. All four were stakes races and he earned 104 and 105 figures in the two wins. Since shipping into Oaklawn, Soy Tapatio has worked three times, with his most recent similar to Silver Prospector seven days ago where his half-mile workout was the second best of 47 on the day. Also similar to Silver Prospector, Soy Tapatio will appreciate the hot and contested early pace by at least three, perhaps four (including Ginobili) other horses, enabling him to potentially win for the fourth time in his last six races.

Rated R Superstar (6) is now a nine year old but considering he won four of nine last year at the age of eight, earning $600K in the process, that’s not a concern. Five of his 13 wins have come at Oaklawn and if he wins this race his earnings at this track alone will exceed $1 million. Last year Rated R Superstar won this race after returning from four months off and a runner-up finish. This year he enters the Fifth Season in even better form, as he won the Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial Stakes one month ago following a three month rest. Jockey Castillo was aboard for the first time in that race and rides back. Even though Rated R Superstar only earned a 100 figure for his win last month and a 102 figure for his win before that last summer in the Governor’s Cup Stakes, the 111 figure effort earned winning last year’s Fifth Season would put him right there at the finish with Silver Prospector if that one ran his best race, leading to a very exciting finish.  

Win bets:

We must absolutely consider a win bet on Silver Prospector (10) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

We can also consider win bets on Soy Tapatio (1) and on Rated R Superstar (6) at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

First, considering Silver Prospector (10) is going to go to post at high odds, an exacta putting him in second position is likely to pay much better than a place bet and is well worth the risk:

ALL over Silver Prospector (10)

Also, box Soy Tapatio (1), Rated R Superstar (6) and Silver Prospector (10)