Race 11 at Fair Grounds | Saturday January 20 | Post Time 6 PM Eastern

Colonel E.R. Bradley Stakes | Purse $100,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top win contenders:

Who Took the Money (6) brings an impressive career record of 10 wins in 19 races into this year’s Colonel E.R. Bradley Stakes, but more importantly he has never finished worse than second in five starts on the Fair Grounds Turf, winning three times. Most of those wins were against horses which were bred in Louisiana, but he can compete in an “open” (not restricted) race like this one, particularly as he’s on a pattern for one of his best races ever. Who Took the Money was away from the races from March of last year, returning in a dirt sprint prep and finishing fifth. Stretched out to two turns, where most of his success had come previously, he missed by a neck in a stakes race then three weeks later on 12/9 he moved to turf and finished fast from eight to get second at the end. Last year at Fair Grounds on turf, Who Took the Money earned 106 and 103 Equibase Speed Figures and now as he improved from a 97 figure two races back to 100 last time out, he’s likely to get back to that level. If he does, he could be very tough to beat considering the two favorites, Beatbox (9) and Strong Quality (2) earned 108 figures when second and third, respectively, in stakes races in their most recent starts. Jockey DeShawn Parker has been aboard for the horse’s last seven wins and rides again. Perhaps best of all, Who Took the Money has gone to post at odds of 5 to 2 or less in his last 11 races, many as the odds-on favorite, but since the public assumes he may be overmatched facing non-restricted company his relatively high morning line odds may hold up which would make him an excellent candidate for a win bet.

Rising Empire (8) also may be a bit overlooked by the betting public, opening at 5 to 1. He returned from four months off in November at a mile on this turf course and won easily by two lengths, with a 108 Equibase Speed Figure as good as the two previously mentioned favorites earned in stakes races around the same time. Last March, Rising Empire led late and settled for second in the much tougher Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Stakes, with a 104 figure. Although he ran poorly when ninth in the Diliberto Memorial Stakes last month, where Beatbox finished second, Rising Empire gets a jockey change to Luis Saez that can only help his chances to return to top form.

Beatbox (9) finished second in that stakes race four weeks ago, rallying from 10^th of 12 in the early stages. Rosario rides back and also rode him to a half-length defeat two before that in a stakes level allowance race in October. Although he can win with his best efforts, Beatbox has not won in his last five races and that last win didn’t come in a stakes race either. He’s definitely a horse to use on exacta tickets at the least.

Similarly, Strong Quality (2) is a contender but no standout. He has as many second place finishes (4) in his career as wins, with just one win in his last five starts. Two of those were grade 1 stakes races where he was overmatched. Strong Quality likes to lead from the start and his inside post will afford him that opportunity so he does have a chance to run one of his best races, but then again Brigadier General (3), who is just outside Strong Quality in the gate, could also try for the lead from the start and hurt Strong Quality’s chances of getting the easy lead he likes.

For exactas, we can also consider Protonic Power (1) and English Tavern (5), who finished fifth and third, respectively, in the Diliberto Stakes. Protonic Power was behind a wall of horses turning for home and showed good energy when clear but too late to make an impact, while English Tavern was out finished by Beatbox but still managed to hold third gamely at the finish.

Bets:

Win: I think we should consider win bets on Who Took the Money (6) and Rising Empire (8) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Who Took the Money (6) and Rising Empire (8) over Protonic Power (1), Strong Quality (2), English Tavern (5), Who Took the Money (6), Rising Empire (8) and Beatbox (9).