Race 6 at Turfway Park | Friday January 24 | Post Time 8:25 PM Eastern

Likely Exchange Stakes | Purse $125,000 | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Olds and Upward | One Mile

Analysis and top contenders:

Earhart (3) has dominated in two races to date, winning by a combined margin of 18 lengths. Better still, in both races Earhart glided on the front end on faster than average fractions in fields of eight and never gave any other horse a shot as she was in front by six lengths with an eighth of a mile to run in both races. Both wins came on the similar all-weather track at Woodbine, at seven furlongs, and from the two post with the horse inside having no early speed, Earhart should once again get an easy lead and never look back. The 101 Equibase Figure earned last out in her second career start is already the highest last race figure in the field, and it should be improved upon in the filly’s third career start. She shipped in from Canada five weeks ago and has been pointing to this race with three solid works over the track as well. Per a Race Lens query, trainer Carroll and jockey Contreras have won more than 20 races from 130 starts in the past five years together, and Contreras won earlier this month in a route over the track.

Everland (7) might win if Earhart can’t lead from start to finish, as she has shown a big kick at Turfway, where she has won three of six. However, I don’t think Earhart will fade so Everland is the best horse to use for second. The best of her wins came last March in the Bourbonette Oaks where she rallied from sixth of 10 to win, with a 100 Equibase Speed Figure. She’s in good recent form as she finished second of 10 in the My Charmer Stakes five weeks ago over the track with a 99 figure.

Other contenders for the exacta and trifecta, perhaps at high odds, are Pendulum (10), Mohawk Trail (5) and Stay Lost (11). Pendulum has finished in the money in nine of 11 races including when finishing fast from 12^th to third in a stakes at Woodbine last fall. Mohawk Trail has never run on all-weather but showed ability on turf which could translate to this surface when rallying for second last March in a stakes and when winning a stakes in the summer of 2023. Stay Lost earned her first win last month, in her 16^th career start, but it was her FIRST race ever on all-weather and at Turfway. It might be a fluke but the 94 Equibase Speed Figure would be competitive for third at least if repeated in this situation.

Bets:

Win Bets –Earhart (3) at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Earhart (3) over Everland (7)

Earhart (3) over Everland (7), Mohawk Trail (5), Pendulum (10) and Stay Lost (11)

Trifectas:

Earhart (3) over Everland (7) over Mohawk Trail (5), Pendulum (10) and Stay Lost (11)

Earhart (3) over Everland (7), Mohawk Trail (5), Pendulum (10) and Stay Lost (11) over Everland (7), Mohawk Trail (5), Pendulum (10) and Stay Lost (11)