Race 9 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday January 6 | Post Time 4:06 PM Eastern

Ginger Brew Stakes | Purse $125,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

 

Analysis and top win contenders:

Waskesiu (6) moves from maiden (winner) to stakes but that’s okay in the three year old ranks early in the year the same as it is in the two year old ranks towards the end of the year because there are few allowance opportunities, so many of the stakes restricted to the age group are similar to allowance level races. Only one of the other 12 entered in this race are stakes winners on grass so a horse like Waskesiu, who is coming off a strong win, fits perfectly. She was trying turf, and two-turns, for the first time in that race, her most recent, and drew off easily by four lengths in a field of 12 under Alvarado, who rides back. One trainer who absolutely knows when his young horses fit in stakes is Bill Mott, who has won or placed with EIGHT of 11 in the past few years in non-graded stakes turf routes like this one, with a horse that just broke its maiden. Likely to improve nicely second off a three month layoff and with a great stalking style and middle post position, Waskesiu may offer superb betting value in this year’s Ginger Brew Stakes.

Ozara (4) will likely be one of the top betting choices as she’s the only stakes winner on turf in the field, having beaten nine other horses four weeks ago in the similar Wait a While Stakes on this course. She rallied from fifth of 10 with a quarter mile to run and got up by a neck at 4 to 5 odds and although she loses Irad Ortiz, Jr. to Life’s an Audible (12), because that one is trained by Pletcher, she picks up top jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who wins his share for the strong Clement barn. As such, even if it turns out Ozara may be too low odds for a win bet, she must be used on any exacta or similar tickets we play involving this race.

Golden Ghost (11) ran about a well breaking her maiden in a turf route last month as Waskesiu did in her maiden breaking effort, moving up from fourth on the turn to lead into the stretch and draw off. She loses Gaffalione to Ozara but picks up Zayas and that’s fine. She had been away from the races for three months before that so should be even stronger for this race and capable of stepping up in class and running competitively.

With a big field on the grass there are opportunities for some prices in the exacta, so in addition to the three above we can consider Time to Dazzle (5), Yatta (10) and Life’s an Audible (12) for second on some exacta tickets.

Bets:

Win: First, we should look to bet Waskesiu (6) to win at 5 to 2 or more, and if either Ozara (4) or Golden Ghost (11) are 3 to 1 or more, we can consider a second win bet, on the one which is the higher odds of the pair near post time.  

Exactas:

Box Waskesiu (6), Ozara (4) and Golden Ghost (11)

Waskesiu (6), Ozara (4) and Golden Ghost (11) over Ozara (4), Time to Dazzle (5), Waskesiu (6), Yatta (10), Golden Ghost (11) and Life’s an Audible (12).