Race 9 at Ellis Park | Saturday July 1 | Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern

Wise Dan Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile on and One Sixteenth on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

 

Main Contenders:

I’ll start with Camp Hope (3), who opens at five to one odds in this 10 horse field even though he’s coming off a career-best effort when winning on June 1. That win, in a classified allowance race on the grass at Churchill Downs, was every bit as good as the win two days later by Set Piece (8) in the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes on the same course. The reason I can say that is Camp Hope rallied from seventh of 10 after a half-mile, to sixth with a quarter-mile to run, then two second with an eighth of a mile to run, before starting to draw away late by a length, earning a 115 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Two days later Set Piece rallied from last of six after a half-mile, to fifth with a quarter mile to run, to second with an eighth of a mile to go, to draw away late by the same one length margin, earning a 117 Equibase Speed Figure. Set Piece won the 2021 Wise Dan with a 112 figure effort and has won two graded stakes since, while Camp Hope won the non-graded Bryan Station Stakes as a two year old in the fall of 2021, won a high level allowance race the following spring, and was winless in five starts before his breakout win last month. Considering Camp Hope won back-to-back in October of 2021, now that he’s back in winning form, he can win again and is definitely the horse to bet, if not to beat, in this race.

Set Piece (8) must be used as a contender on any multiple-race tickets we play such as the double, pick 3 or pick 4 based on the fact he’s making his third start after being off for more than five months and is a multiple stakes winner. He was winning for the second time in a row when taking the 2021 Wise Dan but since then he’s had some really good race but hasn’t put two good races together even once. Geroux was up for his win last May (2022) in the Dinner Party Stakes, and for his win last month in the Arlington Stakes, with the former earning Set Piece a 115 figure and the latter 117, both good enough for a big piece of the purse here if not the winner’s share.

Tut’s Revenge (2) is a longshot play I cannot ignore because even though he has much less chance to win than either Camp Hope or Set Piece, his starting odds of 20 to 1 make betting him worth the risk. Set Piece may have won 12 of 27 races to date, with just two seconds, and Camp Hope may have won five of 17, with one second, but Tut’s Revenge has shown a much more consistent record of 11-10-9 in 46 career starts. Just the 21 for 46 first or second record is quite impressive in my book, and as opposed to most of these, Tut’s Revenge has experience, positive experience at that, on the Ellis Park turf. He led until the final strides and was beaten a neck last July in a non-graded stakes on the course then returned just two weeks later to run huge once again when leasing in the stretch and beaten a neck and a head on the wire. He’s absolutely a fighter, and as such we could be regretting not at least betting a token amount on him to win and including him on any exacta or trifecta tickets we play in this race.

For exacta and trifecta tickets, we can also use the second and third finishers behind Set Piece from the Arlington Stakes, which are Harlan Estate (1) and Get Smokin (4).

Bets:  

Win Bets:  Camp Hope (3) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

For a smaller amount, or even a token $5 or $10, Tut’s Revenge (2) can be bet to win at 6 to 1 odds or more. You might also want to bet Tut’s Revenge to place, or play a $1 exacta or all over Tut’s Revenge.

Exacta: Camp Hope (3) over Harlan Estate (1), Tut’s Revenge (2), Get Smokin (4), Set Piece (8)

For a smaller amount play the reverse of those exactas, which is Harlan Estate (1), Tut’s Revenge (2), Get Smokin (4), Set Piece (8) over Camp Hope (3).

Trifecta: Camp Hope (3) and Set Piece (8) over Harlan Estate (1), Tut’s Revenge (2), Camp Hope (3), Get Smokin (4), Set Piece (8) over Harlan Estate (1), Tut’s Revenge (2), Camp Hope (3), Get Smokin (4), Set Piece (8).