Race 11 at Saratoga | Saturday, July 13 | Post Time 6:17 PM Eastern

Sanford Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $175,000 | Six Furlongs | Two Year Olds

 

Win contenders:

Studlydoright (6) has been visually impressive in both his starts to date, and he’s already a stakes winner whereas none of the other seven are. In his debut on May 5, Studlydoright showed a lot of maturity when rallying from fifth early, getting to third with an eighth of a mile to go and drawing off. Improving from a 75 Equibase Speed Figure to 84 one month later, he won the Tremond Stakes at Saratoga (on Belmont Stakes weekend) even more impressively. Afte bobbling at the start, Studlydoright found himself 11 lengths back after a half-mile had been run but made up all that ground and was drawing away at the end. That 84 figure is represents a faster race than the 81-figure morning line favorite Mentee (1) earned, and with the prospect for an even better effort with an additional half-furlong to run and in his third career start, I think Studlydoright is the horse to beat, not Mentee.

Mo Plex (8) is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win, as he earned the highest Equibase Speed Figure, 89, of ANY horse in the field when winning in his debut on June 20 at Aqueduct. Even more importantly, he did so when sitting in second for the first quarter mile, then battling head and head for the lead until the half-mile mark, before continuing to lead by five lengths with an eighth of a mile to go, eventually winning by 10. Irad Ortiz, Jr. was aboard and rides back and from the outside in this eight-horse field it is pretty likely Mo Plex can sit in second, third or fourth as potential “Early” leaders and pressers Mentee, Baby Dukes (3) and War Tax (7) go hard and fast for the front from the moment the gate opens.

Back to Mentee (1), who opens as the 6 to 5 favorite. Those low odds aren’t the only reason to look elsewhere for which horses to perhaps bet in this race. He drew the outside seven post in his debut so was able to avoid any traffic issues when clearing the field early. However, he gets the rail today and is very likely to have company because he’s not the only horse which led from start to finish in their wins. Baby Dukes (3) did the same thing in his only start, and War Tax led just as easily from the start in his debut win, before being jostled badly in his only other race, resulting in his not making the lead. That is unlikely to happen today, and so it is possible Mentee will have his work cut out for him getting the lead in the opening stages. In his only race, at five furlongs, Mentee was ahead by five lengths in the stretch but only won by a nose as he was running out of energy. Therefore this six furlong trip is of even bigger concern. Even if Mentee does get the early lead, he may have gone too fast to hold off Mo Plex, who will be sitting in the catbird seat, so can get the lead in the stretch. Then again, given how explosive Studlydoright was in both his starts in the final eighth of a mile, Mentee should have even bigger concerns. As such, Mentee gets the label “false favorite.”

Win Bets: Studlydoright (6) and Mo Plex (8) can both be bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Box Studlydoright (6) and Mo Plex (8)