Race 9 at Saratoga | Saturday July 15 | Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern

Kelso Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $175,000 | One Mile on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

 

Pace analysis:

It appears highly likely Big Everest (5) and Mid Day Image (3) will both want the lead from the start, given the former has earned his last FIVE wins on the front from the moment the gate opened and the latter is stretching out off three sprints and earned his last FOUR route wins leading from start to finish. Additionally, Filo De Arianna (6) has gone for the lead in his last three turf races. As such, it’s difficult to imagine anything other than a two or three horse early pace battle which sets up the stalkers and closers.

Main Contenders:

Anaconda (7) and Ice Chocolate (4) as well as Annapolis (2) and Casa Creed (8) are the four that fit the bill as horses to take the most advantage of the fast early pace, but only the first two offer value and they certainly can make us a nice profit if they run as expected. Anaconda (7) hasn’t won a graded stakes yet but did win the Elusive Quality Stakes at Belmont two months ago with a big rally from seventh, prior to that missing by a nose in the Danger’s Hour Stakes at this mile trip. Beaten just a neck, head and half-length in a four horse blanket finish in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes last month at this trip, Anaconda could be in line for the best race of his career and a mild upset win, opening at 6 to 1.

Ice Chocolate (4) opens at ridiculously high odds of 20 to 1 in spite of nearly winning the Grade 2 Kennedy Road Stakes last fall. He rarely runs this far but missed by a neck at a mile and one-sixteenth on grass nearly a year ago this week and he is dropping significantly in class from the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes in June at six furlongs, won by 2022 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Caravel. In that race Ice Chocolate rallied from 11^th of 14 and ended up sixth and just three lengths from the winner. He’s worked exceptionally well since and forms an uncoupled entry with Filo Di Arianna, as they share the same owner, and trainer in Mark Casse, who may have a one-two punch here as Filo Di Arianna insures a very honest past for Ice Chocolate to close into. One race before the Jaipur, Ice Chocolate earned a career best 113 Equibase Speed Figure when second in the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier Stakes and that figure and effort are as good as the best figures and efforts of Annapolis (2), who opens at 8 to 5 compared to 20 to 1 for Ice Chocolate.

Annapolis (2) isn’t necessarily a false favorite but he’s not a standout in my opinion considering when winning the non-graded Opening Verse Stakes in May, his only start this year, he only earned a 98 figure However, that effort came after six months off and now he’s returning from a two month layoff and over the course of his win last summer in the Saranac Stakes so he could be formidable. Luckily, if he wins and one of the two decent odds horses in Anaconda or Ice Chocolate finishes second, we can still make a profit.

Casa Creed (8) won the Grade 1 Fourstardave Stakes last August at this distance on this inner turf course and likely is aiming for that race again, as he returned from four months off in the Jaipur and finished third. Last year he won the Jaipur so it’s possible now as a seven year old he’s not as good as last year, and his 5 to 2 starting odds do not line up with his probability to win, but like Annapolis, Casa Creed can be used with Anaconda and Ice Chocolate on exacta tickets we play.

Bets:  

Win Bets: Anaconda (7) AND Ice Chocolate (4) to win at 4 to 1 or more.

Considering Ice Chocolate (4) has five second place finishes to go along with five career wins, we can also play an exacta of ALL over Ice Chocolate (4) instead of a place bet.

Exactas:

Box Annapolis, Ice Chocolate, Anaconda

Box Ice Chocolate, Anaconda, Casa Creed