Race 12 at Monmouth | Saturday, July 20 | Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern

Haskell Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

 

Analysis and win contenders:

Considering there are several horses in the field which have run their best races on the lead, or no further back than third in the early stages, I see two potential early pace scenarios which benefit Tuscan Sky (3), as well as Dornoch (1). Inversely, neither scenario don’t benefits Fierceness (5) at all, and I will take a stand against him.

The first of the two early pace scenarios has Tuscan Sky going for the lead from the start from the three post, with Dornoch sitting second just as he did behind Seize the Grey in the Belmont Stakes, before Mindframe (7) took the lead by a head over Dornoch with an eighth of a mile to run, before Dornoch reasserted himself the rest of the way to prevail by a half-length. Under that scenario, Tuscan Sky may have a slight edge as he earned a career-best 111 Equibase Speed Figure last month in the Pegasus Stakes and that was the result of blinkers going on for the first time and wearing them again for the Haskell.

The other early pace scenario consists of Fierceness going for the lead from the five post, as that is the way he won the Florida Derby in March with a 110 figure. He also acted like a “need the lead” type in the Kentucky Derby when vying for the lead through the opening quarter mile, before giving way badly. In all three of his wins, Fierceness has won when in front by at least two lengths with an eighth of a mile to go and that is unlikely to be the case in this race. If this scenario takes place, taking up second behind Fierceness at the start should be Dornoch, considering jockey Luis Saez is an aggressive jockey and won’t give up the rail position. This puts Tuscan Sky in a similar position to the one Dornoch was early in the Belmont when stalking Seize the Grey before taking over late in the race.

Considering both the first and second early pace scenarios have Tuscan Sky in first, second or third early, and considering how he extended his lead from three lengths to nearly seven in the final eighth of a mile in the Pegasus, earning a 111 figure which was faster than the 106 figure Dornoch earned in the Belmont, Tuscan Sky gets slight preference.

Dornoch earned a 102 figure in the Fountain of Youth, and then (as stated in the Belmont analysis) his efforts in the Blue Grass Stakes and Kentucky Derby can be ignored because he was asked to take back in the former then was shuffled back and checked in the latter, with no chance to be on or near the early lead. When aggressive tactics were once again used in the Belmont Stakes, Dornoch returned to the form shown not only in the Fountain of Youth but also last fall when winning the Remsen Stakes at the distance of the Haskell. Projecting further improvement, Dornoch could run fast enough to earn a 110 figure which is on par with the 111 figure Tuscan Sky earned in his most recent race, so if Tuscan Sky doesn’t improve as expected, we could be in for a thrilling race.

Then there’s Mindframe, who despite only having run twice to date prior to the Belmont, looked like a potential winner with an eighth of a mile to run. That mile and one-eighth mark where Mindframe led in the Belmont is where the Haskell ends and having improved from a 99 figure one before last to 105 in the Belmont, Mindframe is another projected to run as fast as both Tuscan Sky and Dornoch. Actually, it is possible Mindframe has even more upside given this is only his fourth career start and third in a two-turn race.

Two of the horses some may consider contenders but I do not are Fierceness and Timberlake (4). The reasons for taking a stand against Fierceness were stated above but in case it wasn’t clear, I feel he has no path to victory from off the pace and there are three horses who all appear faster than he is. And Timberlake ran his best two-turn race ever when winning the Rebel Stakes in February off nearly four months away, earning a 105 figure. On the other hand, the Rebel turned out to be what is known as a “negative key race” from which not a single horse won in their subsequent starts. Even if Timberlake can repeat his Rebel effort it is likely not good enough to win.

Win Bets:

Tuscan Sky (3) would be a great win bet at 2 to 1 or more.

Dornoch (1) can be considered for a win bet at 5 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Tuscan Sky (3) over Dornoch (1) and Mindframe (7)

Box Tuscan Sky (3) and Dornoch (1)

Box Tuscan Sky (3) and Mindframe (7)