Race 9 at Del Mar | Saturday July 22 | Post Time 9:05 PM Eastern

San Clemente Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies, Three Year Olds

 

 

Pace analysis:

With 14 entered, plus two also-eligibles, this is going to be a heck of a race and also likely good betting race with no strong favorite. With the fairly short run to the first turn, horses with early speed have to commit to try to get the lead, and that applies to (13) Fast and Shiny, (15) Broadway Girls (who is an also-eligible) and absolutely (2) Ancient Peace. In addition, (1) Flying Connection and (9) Ocean Club are likely to try to push the pacesetters, if not adding to the battle for early contention.

Main Contenders:

All that early tumult leads to a trio of runners getting a benefit to their late kicks, starting with Delight (4), who put in a visually impressive rally from 10^th on the turn to fifth entering the stretch to power off by two lengths when last seen two months ago. That race as an allowance race, but versus older horses, so she moves to three year olds only and fits h ere perfectly for excellent trainer Jonathan Thomas (27% wins on the year), with a FIELD HIGH last race 97 Equibase Speed Figure to improve upon to boot.

Anisette (3) was just as impressive winning her most recent start, also versus older fillies and mares. That was near the end of May, and in her U.S. debut following five months off, a very similar situation to Delight, who had been off for five months as well before winning in May. Anisette broke slow and was last of 12 for the first six furlongs but moved powerfully from 10^th to fifth to the front with a 92 figure effort she too is set to improve off of in her second U.S. start and second off the layoff. 

Spicybug (6) is a bit more of a stalker than a deep closer so might be overtaking the tiring leaders and pacesetters before the other two get into high gear. She stretches out to two turns off two wins in a row sprinting on the grass, and on a strong pattern for improvement off 81, then 87 the 96 figures. She’s bred to handles the longer distance with aplomb and rounds out the top trio.

Three more with an outside chance are Wed (11) and The Wild Grazer (14). In spite of potentially disadvantageous posts they both offer value and are not horses which need the lead to succeed, so could drop in mid-pack and make strong rallies. Wed makes her U.S. debut and gets top jockey Juan Hernandez, and she won a Group 2 race on turf in her native France last year so fits at this level. The Wild Grazer rallied from off the pace to miss by a neck in a stakes at a mile on grass earlier this year and had a troubled trip when third in the Senorita Stakes when last seen in May. Mullins is having a very strong year and wins 26% of the time with Berrios in the saddle as today. Among the “early” pace types, Ocean Club (9), best chance to stick around and opens at 15 to 1:

Bets:  

Win Bets with minimum odds for getting maximum value:

Delight (4) at 3 to 1

Anisette (3) at 7 to 2

Spicybug (6) at 4 to 1

I am personally planning to bet two of the three above if their odds are at or above the minimums near post time.

Exactas:

Box Delight (4), Anisette (3) and Spicybug (6)

Also Delight (4), Anisette (3) and Spicybug (6) over Delight (4), Anisette (3), Spicybug (6), Ocean Club (9). Wed (11) and The Wild Grazer (14)