Race 8 at Monmouth | Saturday July 27 | Post Time 4:14 PM Eastern

Monmouth Oaks – Grade 3 | Purse $250,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies, Three Years Olds

 

Analysis and win contenders:

Little Jamie (8) should be the morning line favorite in my opinion but instead opens at 7 to 2 compared to 5 to 2 for Regaled (3) and 2 to 1 for Gun Song (5). I can understand the reason for this because Regaled finished third in the Delaware Oaks three weeks ago, and because Gun Song won the Black Eyed Susan in May, but for some reason the fact that Little Jamie led late and came up just a head shy of winning the Indiana Oaks, a similar graded stakes to the other two, and also for three year olds only, isn’t carrying enough weight. I hope the public agrees because 7 to 2 odds would be great for a win bet on Little Jamie, who improved her Equibase Speed Figure for the third straight race, to 99, which is the best BY FAR any horse in this field has ever earned, period. In the Indiana Oaks, Little Jamie pressed the pace in second for the first six furlongs took the lead by a head with an eighth of a mile to run and then battled to the wire when coming up just a head shy of victory. Prior to that Little Jamie ran a similar race at Churchill Downs when moving up from third early to lead with a quarter mile to go and then running strongly to the end, coming up a head and three-quarters of a length shy of wining. That was one mile and one-eighth, so her effort last time out at this distance is more representative of what she can do today and that is the reason Little Jamie gets top billing.

Chilled (2) had run four times this year, all in routes, before earning her first win five weeks ago at Churchill Downs. She beat three-year-olds and upward in that race and now faces three-year-olds only, and she did it with aplomb as she was three in front with an eighth of a mile to go and still powered it on late to win by eight. She improved to a 91 figure well in arrears of the 99 figure Little Jamie earned in her most recent race, but it most be noted Little Jame had earned an 86 figure, so if Little Jamie doesn’t take another step forward, or if Chilled takes two steps forward to one for Little Jamie, Chilled can absolutely win this race.

Gun Song (5) had a little excuse when eighth and last in the Acorn Stakes in her most recent race on June 7, but it doesn’t matter. No one was beating Thorpedo Anna that day, with that filly now the leader among three-year-old fillies by far, having won the CCA Oaks after the Acorn. One before that when winning the Black-Eyed Susan, Gun Song ran brilliantly as she stalked in second for the first six furlongs then took over and drew off to earn a 95 figure and if she improved off that she’s right there with Little Jamie in this race.

I’m taking a stand against the second morning line choice, Regaled, as she was unimpressive to me when rallying from sixth to third in the Delaware Oaks. She was totally disregarded at 70 to 1 that day off a fourth of six finish in June, and her best effort came in a first level allowance win in May with an 88 figure not good enough to threaten any of the previously mentioned fillies if repeated.

Win Bets:

Little Jamie (8) at odds of 2 to 1 or more

Chilled (2) at odds of 4 to 1 or more

Gun Song (5) at odds of 2 to 1 or more

Exactas: Box Little Jamie, Chilled, Gun Song