Race 8 at Saratoga | Saturday July 29 | Post Time 4:26 PM Eastern

Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap – Grade 1 | Purse $350,000 | Six Furlong | Three Year Olds and Upward

 

 

Overall analysis:

The public will be focusing on last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Elite Power (4), who is two-for-two as a four year old, having won a race in Saudi Arabia in February and the True North Stakes at Belmont last month for his sixth and seventh straight wins, respectively. He won his only start at Saratoga and he does not need the lead to win as well as has been working well since the True North. However, not only does Elite Power offer no value for win bets (opening at 4 to 5), he does not appear to be the standout those odds make it seem he is. In terms of sheer speed, normalizing for various tracks and conditions which is what a speed figure does, his best efforts have earned 111 and 112 Equibase Figures. We can compare those to others in the field, for example Gunite (5) earned a 113 figure winning the Aristides Stakes last month, while Gun It (1) earned a 112 figure winning last month at Belmont 12 days later than Elite Power won. Looking further, Dean Delivers (6) earned a 109 figure in his most recent race winning the Smile Sprint at Gulfstream. Then there’s Little Vic (7) and Synthesis (2), who finished fifth and second four weeks ago in the Grade 2 John A. Nerud Stakes. Their figures of 98 and 93, respectively, are much lower than the first four, BUT they have races in the past in the same altitude of the Elite Power and the other three with 110+ figures. The ONLY horse which doesn’t belong is Awesome Aaron (3), whose best effort earned a 93 figure four weeks ago in Kentucky, but also who is likely to set the early pace given he’s run 21 and chance in his last two starts on the lead.

Main Contenders:

Now we sort, and after sorting based on odds, Little Vic (7) is the key to profit in this race as he opens at 15 to 1 although he does not have such little chance as compared to Elite Power (4) and Gunite (5), at the least. The four year has a five for 13 overall record in sprints, including five huge efforts in a row from last October through this March, culminating in victory in the Grade 3 Tom Fool Handicap at Aqueduct, where he wasn’t poorly regarded, going to post at 6 to 1. He had added blinkers one race before that and finished second to streaking eight length winner Repo Rocks, who won his next start. Cutting back from seven furlongs to six, EXACTLY as he’s doing today, Little Vic stalked in third off a :45 second half-mile, took over from the four path on the turn and coasted home. Getting the identical seven post today, I think he can do the same thing on the same cut back to six furlongs, which is his best trip as he has earned four of his five wins at the distance. Last out in the Nerud Stakes he was sent for the lead, which had not been done in month, but with a good post which doesn’t require him to be sent, jockey Olivero (up for his last three wins) can bide his time as Awesome Aaron goes for the lead, and if Little Vic runs as he did in the Tom Fool, with a 114 Equibase figure BETTER than the 112 Elite Power earned last month and the 113 figure Gunite earned last month, he can post the upset in this race.

Bets:  

Win: We should consider a win bet on Little Vic (7) at odds of 4 to 1 more.

Exacta:

We should play larger denomination exacta box combinations with the favorites, but then as every horse but Awesome Aaron has some shot I won’t hesitate to play some exactas with Little Vic in first and second, as follows:

Box Little Vic (7) and Elite Power (4)

Box Little Vic (7) and Gunite (5)

Little Vic (7) over Gun It (1), Synthesis (2), Elite Power (4), Gunite (5) and Dean Delivers (6)

Gun It (1), Synthesis (2), Elite Power (4), Gunite (5) and Dean Delivers (6) over Little Vic (7)