Race 12 at Horseshoe Indianapolis | Saturday July 8 | Post Time 6:40 PM Eastern

Indiana Derby – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile on and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

 

Main Contenders:

Steve Asmussen may have a late blooming three year old stakes winner on his hands in the form of Onthestage (4). The colt made his career debut in January in a two-turn race, likely not because Asmussen was trying to get him ready to the Road to the Derby but more likely because the cold isn’t bred to sprint at all. The colt finished sixth that day then improved a bit to finish third in career start #2, then regressed and finished seventh in his third start towards the end of March. When Onthestage returned to the races in late May, he was a different, and MUCH BETTER, horse, as he rallied from sixth to win by a head at a mile, then three weeks later the colt ran a BREAKOUT race when visually impressively rallying from seventh to third on the turn, then bolted away to a four length lead in a sixteenth of a mile before coasting home to a six and one-half length advantage That effort on June 17 earned Onthestage a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure which not only is the best last race figure in the field, making it the fastest last race in this group, it is tied for the best figure by any horse in this field. Verifying (5) earned a 102 figure when winning in January then again when second by a neck this spring in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Tapit Trice. Considering Onthestage is making his third start off a layoff and bound to improve, and opening at 10 to 1 odds, he’s the one to bet, if not to beat, in this year’s Indiana Derby.

Act a Fool (3) is the horse Onthestage has to catch to win, as he is was won three in a row leading from start to finish and gets a good inside post to get the lead form the start again. There is potential for Transect (1) to try to repeat his wire-to-wire win in his most recent start on May 22 at a Mile, in an allowance race, but Act A Fool may not let Transect have the lead, and if Transect does get to the front that’s not a problem for Act A Fool anyway as he stalked the pacesetter in second for a half-mile before drawing off in March, the first of a series of four wins in a row he brings into this race. As such, opening at 6 to 1 odds for the strong Rivelli barn, which just had its top three year old Two Phil’s retire, Onthestage gives us a second horse which could be profitable betting to win. 

Minor contenders:

Verifying (5) opens as the 8 to 5 favorite more on the strength of hype than form. He has two career wins in eight starts to his credit, consisting of his maiden win in a sprint last summer and an allowance level win around two turns in January with a 102 Equibase Speed Figure which was exceptional at the time for the division. However, Verifying finished fourth as the favorite the next month in the Rebel, then somewhat redeemed himself when beaten a neck by Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass Stakes, getting back to the 102 figure level. After setting a blistering early pace for a half-mile in the Kentucky Derby before fading to 16^th, Verifying patiently stalked the pacesetter in second for seven furlongs in the Matt Winn Stakes last month, made the lead in the stretch, but was beaten a half-length on the wire. Considering he led late and settled for second in both the Blue Grass and Matt Winn, I’m going to take a stand against Verifying winning the Indiana Derby.

Hayes Strike (7) oddly opens as the second choice on the morning line. He was no match for the aforementioned Two Phil’s in the Ohio Derby two weeks ago when third, beaten twelve lengths at the end, but did win the Texas Derby at the end of May with a 100 figure. He does have a big late kick and will need Act a Fool, Transect and Verifying to all battle for the early lead on faster than average fractions, to set up his late kick for a victory, which I feel is unlikely. However he is definitely a contender for a runner-up or third place share as he will be passing a bunch of horses late.

Bets:  

Win Bets: Onthestage (4) and Act a Fool (3) should both be considered for win bets at odds of 3 to 1 or more. I would absolutely bet both to win if above those odds given the value offered in a race where the first and second morning line favorites appear vulnerable.

Exacta: Onthestage (4) and Act a Fool (3) over Onthestage (4), Act a Fool (3), Verifying (5) and Hayes Strike (7)

Box Onthestage (4), Act a Fool (3), Verifying (5)

Box Onthestage (4), Act a Fool (3), Hayes Strike (7)

By playing all three exactas above we are maximizing our chance at a nice profit.