Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, June 1 | Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern

Regret Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $275,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Win contenders:

Pin Up Betty (9) finished second in four straight races stretching back to November of last year before finally earning her first win three weeks ago. However, it must be noted three of those runner-up efforts came on dirt or all-weather, with only the last two on turf. Perhaps more importantly, Pin Up Betty was rested nearly three months between her dirt race on January 19 and her first turf race on April 13 and seems to have matured a lot physically and mentally during the time off in addition to really taking to the grass. In the race last month Pin Up Betty made a bold move in the stretch to get to within a neck of the leader and although the winner drew off by three and one-half lengths after that, Pin Up Betty was exceptionally game in keeping the third finisher at bay by a neck at the wire. Next, running over the Churchill Downs turf for the first time on May 9 and at the distance of the Regret Stakes, Pin Up Betty rallied wide starting with a quarter mile to run to be in front by a couple of lengths into the stretch then drew off by five lengths. With the first of the two efforts earning a 93 Equibase Speed Figure and her most recent effort a 94 figure, Pin Up Betty is also moving from three year olds and upward to just three year olds. Therefore, she could be poised for her best effort yet and that could be good enough to post the upset in this field.

Hello Hollywood (7) didn’t run well in her career debut in January when running two turns on grass without benefit of a shorter race first, but her three starts since have all resulted in good efforts and her pattern for improvement can’t be ignored. Hello Hollywood won on February 25 in her second start, then although fourth in the Sanibel Island Stakes after that, she was beaten just a head and a nose for second. Improving to a career-best 98 figure last month when beaten a nose and a neck for the win in a very strong effort, Hello Hollywood could run even better and like Pin Up Betty, she could post an upset as we can expect her odds to be higher than other horses with proven stakes form.

Buchu (6) won the similar Jessamine Stakes last October. Following a sixth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in November, Buchu was given five months off and returned to winning form in the Appalachian Stakes, earning a career-best 106 speed figure. Off that win, Buchu was well regarded four weeks ago in the Edgewood Stakes but finished sixth, still earning a strong 104 figure. That poor effort could have been the result of the soggy turf course which was labeled yielding that day. Back on firmer ground and having won on the Churchill Downs turf course last September, Buchu could return to form good enough to win this year’s Regret Stakes.

Two other horses with stakes form are Way to Be Marie (1) and Dancing N Dixie (4), who finished second and third, respectively, in the Edgewood Stakes, and in front of Buchu. Way to Be Marie earned a career-best 107 figure with that effort, a big improvement from the 100 speed figure earned before that in March when winning on the grass. In the Edgewood, Way to Be Marie rallied from fourth on the turn to lead with an eighth of a mile to go but was out finished by the winner, while Dancing N Dixie (who earned a 106 figure) was widest of the 11 horses entering the stretch and rolling late to go from eighth to third in the final eighth of a mile. Although those were good efforts and both fillies may be competitive again in the Regret, I think they also may be bet more heavily than is correct for their probability, noting for example Dancing N Dixie finished third in two straight stakes races prior to the Edgewoodwhile rallying much too late to be a win contender.

Win Bets:

Pin Up Betty (9) at 4 to 1 or higher.

Hello Hollywood (7) at 5 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

All with Pin Up Betty (9), which compliments the win bet and may pay more than a place bet

Box Buchu (6), Hello Hollywood (7), Pin Up Betty (9)

Buchu (6), Hello Hollywood (7), Pin Up Betty (9) over Way to Be Marie (1), Dancing N Dixie (4), Buchu (6), Hello Hollywood (7), Pin Up Betty (9)