Race 9 at Belmont Park | Saturday June 10 | Post Time 4:19 PM Eastern

Jaipur Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $400,000 | Six Furlongs on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

 

Main Contenders:

The race drew 14, with two also-eligibles, and more than half the field has strong credentials in similar turf sprint stakes so I wouldn’t argue with anyone who considered a horse not among the ones mentioned below as a contender.

That being said, Big Invasion (10) gets top billing and can post the mild upset opening at 6 to 1, and if he goes to post at those odds, or even as low as 3 to 1, it will be the highest odds he’s ever had in 10 career races. Until his last race, the Turf Sprint Stakes on Derby day, Big Invasion was the favorite in all nine races and was the odds-on favorite in five of those. He won seven of those nine races including five stakes races in a row between March, 2022 and last August, and one of those came on this course at Belmont when victorious in the Paradise Creek Stakes in May of 202. He finished third in his final start of 2022 then took six months off, once again winning a turf sprint stakes, the Silks Run in March, as if he had never been away from the races. Next came the Turf Sprint five weeks ago and that race can be TOTALLY IGNORED because of the traffic issues he encountered. Starting 10^th of 14, Big Invasion was rallying full of run in mid-stretch when he got in very tight quarters and jockey Joel Rosario had to check him sharply to avoid falling, and in doing so losing any chance. He’s going to get a lot of pace to run at in this field with Nothing Better (9), Air Force Red (3) and a few others likely trying for the lead from the start, so with a good post like the seven in a nine horse field he had for the Silks Run, and with the Rosario aboard, who has been in the saddle for his last five wins, Big Invasion may be the one to beat in a very deep and talented field.

Casa Creed (11) won the 2021 Jaipur and did it again in 2022 and as he just missed by a head in the Turf Sprint Stakes in Saudi Arabia when last seen in February (the same race he finished second in the previous year), could do it again. Now having earned over $2 million, Casa Creed has also proven he really likes this course as he has won the last three times he’s raced over it. Luis Saez has been his regular rider since the winter of 202s and just like Big Invasion, Casa Creed should benefit from a hot early pace so be rolling into the thick of the action in the last eighth of a mile.

Caravel (12) is now 11 for 18 on grass after winning the Unbridled Sydney Stakes on Kentucky Oaks day last month. Prior to that she won the Grade 2 Shakertown Stakes and that win came five months after winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Both those wins were against males, so there’s no problem in moving from facing fillies and mares to the boys. Many of her wins, including her last three, have been earned leading from start to finish, but she’s smart and does not need the lead to win, as evidenced by her win from third early last fall in the Franklin Stakes and last summer at Saratoga. Tyler Gaffalione has been up for five of her last six wins including winning at this trip one year ago in the Intercontinental Stakes (at a mile). She opens as the 3 to 1 favorite and should go lower than that considering her recent record but even if she’s not as good a win bet as the other two top contenders, she must be used in the win position on exacta and trifecta tickets played.

For second position on exacta tickets, and for third position on trifecta tickets, in this full 14 horse field, we should consider Air Force Red (3), Ice Chocolat (6), Arrest Me Red (8) and Our Shot (16). Air Force Red has some early speed but can also sit second early and fits with these. Ice Chocolat ran the best race of his career four weeks ago when coming up three-quarters of a length short of winning a graded stakes and did the same in November. Arrest Me Red finished second in this race last year with Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding, who rides again. Our Shot ran the best race of his career last month and if he draws in from the also-eligible list could run well at high odds

Bets:  

Win Bets: We should consider win bets on BOTH Big Invasion (10) and Casa Creed (11) at odds of 5 to 2 or more. The same minimum/fair odds of 5/2 apply to Caravel (12) but I would rather bet the two horses likely to off at the highest odds among the trio.   

Exactas:

Box Big Invasion (10), Casa Creed (11), Caravel (12)

Big Invasion (10), Casa Creed (11), Caravel (12)  over Big Invasion (10), Casa Creed (11), Caravel (12), Air Force Red (3), Ice Chocolat (6), Arrest Me Red (8), Our Shot (16)

Trifecta:

Big Invasion (10), Casa Creed (11), Caravel (12)  over Big Invasion (10), Casa Creed (11), Caravel (12) over Big Invasion (10), Casa Creed (11), Caravel (12), Air Force Red (3), Ice Chocolat (6), Arrest Me Red (8), Our Shot (16)