Race 10 at Belmont at the Big A | Saturday, June 15 | Post Time 5:13 PM Eastern

Bed O’ Roses Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

 

Win contenders:

Morning Matcha (4) has won her last three one turn races on dirt, which all happen to have been at the same seven furlong distance of this race. The last two wins came in her two most recent races, in December then in April as if she had not been away from the races for four months. Jockey Sanchez was aboard for the last two wins and rides back. All three wins came in stakes but restricted in one way or another, however, in the best of the trio Morning Matcha ran fast enough to earn a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. To put that in perspective, the 3 to 1 starting favorite Flying Connection (6) earned a career best 100 figure last month when third in the Derby City Distaff. However, Flying Connection is not a seven furlong specialist like Morning  Matcha is, and all five of Flying Connection’s wins going back to the start of 2023 came in on graded stakes as well, the same as Morning Matcha. Trainer Reid does very well shipping horses from his home base in Pennsylvania to New York, and all three starters at the meeting have finished first or second. This mare shipped up to finish third twice in the past 14 months, and she won over the track at this distance last December. All in all Morning Matcha has no knocks and opens at 12 to 1 so gets top billing.

Big Pond (2) won her first two races, both dirt sprints, last spring and summer then in the fall won or placed in three straight including a nose defeat in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes near the end of the year. She moved to the barn of Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott before her most recent race four weeks ago when beaten just three-quarters of a length in the similar Vagrancy Stakes, won by Leave No Trace (9). She was favored to win that day and should run better in her second start for her new connections.

Leave No Trace (9) has won two in a row including the Vagrancy Stakes last month, both under Lezcano, who rides back. She won her only start at seven furlongs and her last two wins came at six and one-half furlongs, so she would be no surprise if winning again and rounds out a trio which sticks out against the rest of the field. She too offers value as a win bet because in spite of having won a similar race over the track last month her starting odds are 6 to 1 and its odd her starting odds are higher than the horse she beat by three-quarters of a length, Big Pond, who opens at 4 to 1.

Win Bets:

All three contenders – Morning Matcha (4), Big Pond (2) and Leave No Trace (9) - can be considered for win bets, at odds of 3 to 1 or more. The best strategy is to bet two of the three at the highest odds near post time, provided those odds are more than 3 to 1.

I would also consider an “exacta as a place bet” on Morning Matcha (4), because she has finished first or second in 13 of 22 races on dirt. That exacta would be ALL over Morning Matcha (4) and has the likelihood to pay more than a place bet for the same amount wagered.

Exactas:

Box Morning Matcha (4), Big Pond (2) and Leave No Trace (9)