Race 6 at Belmont Park | Saturday June 24 | Post Time 3:41 PM Eastern

Wild Applause Stakes | Purse $150,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

 

Main Contenders:

Soviet Excess (6) rides a two race winning streak and even though she’s the only horse in the field trained by Todd Pletcher opens at 6 to 1, so we absolutely have to look at her first when deciding who might be the best win bet. The filly finished second in two straight, before the wins, and all four races were routes, two on the grass. She fits on all counts in this non-graded stakes for three year old fillies and has every right to post the mild upset, at higher odds than she should be or has been in her last two wins where she was the 3 to 2 favorite in both.

Liguria (3) is one of two saddled by Chad Brown, the other being Tax Implications, who has much less chance to win as she hasn’t run since October whereas all the other seven in the main body of the race have run this year. Liguria finished second to that stablemate in her debut last September then won two in a row including the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes in California, before taking the winter off. She returned in the tougher Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes on Derby weekend last month and wasn’t disgraced as she was beaten a neck and three heads for second in a five horse blanket finish for the runner-up spot. Logically improving in her second start back off the layoff and with Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard, Liguria would be no surprise if victorious in this situation.

Breath Away (8) opens as the 2 to 1 favorite so is likely a poor win bet as compared to Soviet Excess for sure and possible as compared to Liguria (who opens at 3 to 1). Breath Away won around two turns on turf in her career debut, then two later won the two-turn Sanibel Island Stakes in Florida, this past April. On Preakness weekend she was sent to post as the 9 to 5 favorite in the Hilltop Stakes, made a big move from eighth on the turn to lead in the stretch, then was passed and beaten a half-length at the end while two lengths clear over the third horse. That was a career best effort with a 98 Equibase Speed Figure not as good as the 101 Liguria earned in the Edgewood and slightly better than the 95 figure Soviet Excess Earned on April 30. Rosario rides back and as she’s never been worse than second in four starts, Breath Away certainly must be considered as a win contender on any pick 3, pick 4 or double tickets we play involving this race at the least, as well as for exactas. 

Bets:  

Win Bets:  Soviet Excess (6) can be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. I might consider a win bet on Liguria (3) as well, as long as she’s higher than 2 to 1.

Exactas:

Box Liguria (3), Soviet Excess (6), Breath Away (8)