Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday June 29 | Post Time 5:31 PM Eastern

Kelly’s Landing Stakes | Purse $250,000 | Six and One-Half Furlongs | Three Year Olds and Upward

Win contenders:

Closethegame Sugar (6) gets slight preference among three strong contenders which can win, in a race where the morning line favorite Hoist the Gold (5) is highly suspect. Closethegame Sugar starts at 7 to 2 odds and has done little wrong in his seven-race career, winning four times, and finishing second in two others. The first five of those were on all-weather or turf, but when returning off a seven-month layoff in May and tried on dirt for the first time, he ran a fantastic race when second behind nearly wire-to-wire winner Angkor (7). In his second start off the layoff just four weeks ago and in the Aristides Stakes at Churchill Downs, with a nearly identical $250K purse and run at the slightly shorter distance of six furlongs, Closethegame Sugar beat Angkor soundly, as well as Tejano Twist (4), who had earned more than $1.3 million and who was fourth (beaten under a length) in this race last year as a four-year-old. Closethegame Sugar is a four-year-old now and coming off a very strong 106 Equibase Speed Figure effort, and with Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding the same as he did four weeks ago, this horse may be the one to beat.

Angkor (7) did run poorly in the Aristides after his strong win four weeks earlier. He raced without Lasix for the first time since he was a two year old in that race and that might have been the reason, however it might have been the early pace was just too hot as he was within a half-length of the leader, who ran 21.6 seconds, as compared to the 22.2 fraction the early leader set where he was just a head behind in the Aristides. With a jockey change to leading rider Jose Ortiz, and with that effort on May 2 at the same distance as this race making the effort representative of what he’s capable of with his best effort, Angkor is another who has a square shot at victory in this field as the win in May earned the same 106 figure as the win by Closethegame Sugar earlier this month. Additionally, Angkor offers good value as he opens at 5 to 1 odds.

Anarchist (1) opens at the highest odds of the three top contenders, at 6 to 1, I suppose the only reason being he returns from a layoff since last August. However, if his last two races were more recent he might be favored, as he missed by a head in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes then won the Grade 2 Pat O’ Brien Stakes. Since returning to training, Anarchist has been working consistently and trainer Doug O’ Neill shipped him out from California and gave him a workout over the track this week to get him ready for today’s test, bringing very good Southern California based jockey Antonio Fresu along with him. Those two efforts before the layoff earned Anarchist 113 and 110 figures, respectively, so could win this race hands down if Closethegame Sugar and Angkor don’t fire, and even if they do he still could win, or complete the exacta for the 11^th time in his 13^th career start.

Earlier I mentioned morning line favorite Hoist the Gold (3) is suspect, and that is because he’s 0 for 4 this year with just one third place finish and that was a non-threatening effort at 11 to 1 in the Met Mile three weeks ago. He won the Cigar Mile last December in an upset at 8 to 1 and the Phoenix Stakes last fall at Keeneland in an upset but this may not be his best distance nor is he in good form right now, with just 92 and 99 figures in his two efforts since returning from a 14^th place effort in the Saudi Cup in February. Tejano Twist (4) is also a non-contender in my opinion given his seventh-place effort in May and his non-threatening third in the Aristides behind Closethegame Sugar. Bango (8) is also a non-contender, despite having won 11 races at Churchill Downs in his career and having won this race last year when it was run at Ellis Park. He finished third twice before a November to May layoff then fourth on the comeback at odds of 2 to 5 and doesn’t appear to be anywhere near top form good enough to win.

Win Bets: Closethegame Sugar (6) at odds of 5 to 2 or more

Consider a win bet on either Angkor (7) or on Anarchist (1), whichever is higher odds and at least 7 to 2

Doubles:

Race 10: Closethegame Sugar (6)

Race 11: Pyrenees (1), First Mission (2), Skippylongstocking (9)

Race 10: Anarchist (1), Closethegame Sugar (6), Angkor (7)

Race 11: Pyrenees (1)

Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday June 29 | Post Time 6:03 PM Eastern

Stephen Foster Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and One Eighth | Four Year Olds and Upward

Win contenders:

Pyrenees (1) gets the ground saving rail for this race and that may give him a slight edge over some more experienced horses. Having won four races in a row going back to December of last year, Pyrenees has continued to mature physically and mentally as well while moving up in class, starting with his maiden win and culminating with a victory in the Pimlico Special Stakes last month. In those four races, Pyrenees improved his Equibase Speed Figure from 89, to 96, then to 99, before a career-best figure of 103 earned in the Pimlico Special. In three of his four wins, all with jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. in the saddle (as in this race), Pyrenees stalked the early pacesetters in second, third or fourth, but in his win on April 12, at the distance of the Foster Pyrenees took the lead from the start when no other horse wanted it and controlled the tempo to the wire while drawing off in the stretch by three lengths. In the Pimlico Special, Pyrenees returned to a stalking style as he surged from third in the final eighth of a mile and out finished heavy favorite Kingsbarns, who had made the lead with an eighth of a mile to run, to win by three-quarters of a length. Having already won at the mile and one-eighth distance of this race, as well as a mile and three-sixteenths distance in the Pimlico Special, with the speed to lead from the start or to stalk the pacesetters then pounce in the stretch and on a pattern for another big step forward in his Equibase Speed Figure, Pyrenees looks to be a formidable contender in this field.

Skippylongstocking (9) has run two big races in a row, the first and third best in the last year, and would be no surprise if getting his picture taken in the winner’s circle for the ninth time in his 24^th career start. He proved himself at the level last summer when leading from start to finish in the Charles Town Classic Stakes at the distance of the Stephen Foster, then wasn’t disgraced one bit when third behind Cody’s Wish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. After not finishing in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational to start his five-year-old campaign in January, Skippylongstocking redeemed himself beautifully with wins in the Challenger Stakes in March before a career best effort in the Oaklawn Handicap on April 20, where he earned a career best 114 speed figure, which is second by one point to the back-to-back 115 figures First Mission earned in his last two races. Skippylongstocking has excellent tactical sped as well, with four of his last five wins coming when second for the opening three-quarters of a mile, and the other earned when leading from the start. The outside post does not appear to be a disadvantage as he drew the 10 post in a field of 11 in the Oaklawn Handicap, with jockey Jose Ortiz (who rides again in the Foster) getting the horse to the three path, then two path, on the first turn. With a similarly long run from the start to the first turn in this race, Skippylongstocking could find himself on the lead, or just behind Pyrenees in the early stages, and from there the strategy of both riders may be something to behold.

First Mission (2) is certainly a strong contender, with five wins in eight career starts and a narrow miss by a nose in the Clark Stakes last November over the track. He was a three-year-old in the Clark and earned an extremely strong 112 figure in that race, making the lead and opening up by a length with an eighth of a mile to go before losing in a head bob on the wire. After resting a couple of months, and like Skippylongstocking, First Mission ran poorly in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational, checking in ninth of 12 with no visible excuse. Returning two months later in the Essex Handicap, First Mission was an entirely different horse, dominating in the stretch and ridden out to a five length win with a career-best 115 figure. Returning five weeks later, First Mission repeated that effort in the Alysheba Stakes with a 115 figure and four length victory. Also, a four year old like Pyrenees, First Mission may not be fully matured and so another top effort is likely forthcoming in this race.

Win Bets: Pyrenees (1) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Box Pyrenees (1) and First Mission (2), Box Pyrenees (1) and Skippylongstocking (9)