Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday June 3 | Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern

Arlington Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $225,000 | One Mile and One-Sixteenth on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

 

Main Contenders:

Royal Patronage (6) imported to the U.S. from Europe last July and in spite of having won just three of eight races, none since the previous September, was entered in the Grade 1 $1 million Belmont Derby Invitational. He stalked the pace in second for the first mile and one-eighth of that mile and one-quarter race but faded to fifth at the end. His next two efforts, last August and September, were even poorer as he finished sixth in the $1 million Saratoga Derby and seventh in the Virginia Derby. However, something drastically changed over the fall, winter and early spring as Royal Patronage returned to the race on April 20 with a stakes quality effort winning in a field of 11 by a nose after running wide on the far turn. That effort earned him a 115 Equibase Speed Figure which, except for the 115 Set Piece (7) earned winning the Baltimore Washington Turf Cup last September, is by far the best (fastest) race in the field. Now set to make his second start off a seven month layoff, Royal Patronage should run even better and earn his first U.S. stakes win. Better still, Royal Patronage opens at 3 to 1 odds compared to 8 to 5 for Set Piece so offers decent value for win bets.

Harlan Estate (5) and Tiberius Mercurius (4) both start at 10 to 1 odds which appear high relative to their probability to run well. Harlan Estate just ran a career-best effort when second and beaten a nose by Tiberius Mercurius on the Churchill Downs Turf course three weeks ago. That effort earned Harlan Estate a 108 figure, the same as Tiberius Mercurius, who had earned a 111 figure when third in the race won by Royal Patronage one month earlier.

Set Piece (7) has won 11 of 26 races, six of 20 on the grass, and perhaps more importantly four of seven on the Churchill Downs turf. He was off for five months before rallying from 11^th to third four weeks ago in the non-graded Opening Verse Stakes, a race he had won in 2021. He also won the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes in June of 2021 but won just two of 10 since, so his low odds are a bit hard to swallow insofar as considering a win bet is concerned. Set Piece is a deep closer so likely to be last of the seven in the early stages of this race but he can finish fast even into slow fractions. What’s a bit odd for a horse with his running style is if he doesn’t win, he doesn’t even hit the board, because he has just one runner-up finish and two third place finishes (to go along with six wins) in 20 career turf races.   

Bets:  

Win Bets: Royal Patronage (6) can be bet to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more, and even if lower than his 3 to 1 starting odds near post time is still a low odds overlay as his probability to win suggest those odds offer excellent value.

For smaller amounts (to win) than on Royal Patronage, win bets can be considered for Harlan Estate (5) and Tiberius Mercurius (4) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

The strategy for Exacta wagers is to maximize profit so we will avoid the lowest paying exacta combinations involving Royal Patronage and Set Piece. Instead these exactas can be played:

Box Tiberius Mercurius (4), Harlan Estate (5) and Royal Patronage (6).

Box Tiberius Mercurius (4), Harlan Estate (5) and Set Piece (7)

Trifecta:

Royal Patronage (6) over Tiberius Mercurius (4), Harlan Estate (5) and Set Piece (7) over Tiberius Mercurius (4), Harlan Estate (5) and Set Piece (7).