Race 8 at Saratoga | Saturday June 8 | Post Time 3:22 PM Eastern

Woody Stephens Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $500,000 | Seven Furlongs | Three Years Olds

 

Win contenders:

Valentine Candy (4) has won five straight stakes races in a row on dirt, going back to December of last year. His only loss since then came on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park and is irrelevant when assessing his chances today. He would be the prohibitive favorite in most races but not this one because the other 11 have wins or second place finishes recently. That’s a good thing, as the starting favorite, Prince of Monaco (7), opens at 7 to 2 odds. Valentine Candy opens at 6 to 1 odds and even if bet in half down to about 3 to 1 I think the colt is would be a great bet. That’s because in his most recent win in the Bachelor Stakes he earned a 107 Equibase Speed Figure, which is by far the highest last race figure in the field. Ricardo Santana has been in the saddle for his last two wins and rides again. In this field, it appears Barksdale (2), Frost Free (5) and Vlahos (8) will all be sent hard for the lead as that’s the only way they can succeed. Under any early pace scenario I can see, Valentine Candy will be mid-pack early and as he has won when racing mid-pack early in his last three wins, another win appears in store.

Book’em Dano (1) and Maximus Meridius (11) are two horses with a slight shot to succeed and a high probability to finish second or third. Book’em Dano has never been worse than second in six races, winning four. He was beaten a head in the 12 horse Saudi Derby when last seen three and one-half months ago and he is working like he means business for his return. He won the first three starts of his career and has won at this seven furlong trip. Maximus Meridius opens at double digit odds in spite of the fact he’s been second in two stakes races in his last two starts. Rosario rides back off a very highly rated race where the horse earned a 103 Equibase Figure which is the second highest in the field. The winner of that race, Doncho, came back to win earlier this week and led from start to finish in the race where Maximus Meridius was second, but as it is highly unlikely there will be a wire to wire winner here, Maximus Meridius has a nice shot to rally past the tiring early leaders for a piece at the very least.

Win Bets:

Valentine Candy (4) to win at 2 to 1 or more.

I might consider a small win bet on Book’em Dano (1) at odds of 4 to 1 or more and on Maximus Meridius (11) at odds of 6 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Valentine Candy (4) over Book’em Dano (1) and Maximus Meridius (11)

Box Valentine Candy (4), Book’em Dano (1) and Maximus Meridius (11)

Trifecta:

Valentine Candy (4) over ALL over Book’em Dano (1) and Maximus Meridius (11)

The trifecta and first exacta above, when both played, cover all possibilities of Book’em Dano or Maximus Meridius finishing second or third if Valentine Candy wins.