Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs | Saturday March 11 | Post Time 5:15 PM Eastern

Tampa Bay Derby – Grade 3 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Top Contenders:

With Tapit Trice (6) the one to beat on paper (more on him later) I want to first take a long look at Prairie Hawk (12), who was decently regarded by bettors at eight to one odds in the Sam F. Davis but who ended up ninth. In his three previous races, Prairie Hawk had been first or second after a quarter mile had been run, winning both of his two-turn races, the second of the two with a 91 Equibase Speed Figure which would be highest earned by any horse in this field if not for the 96 figure earned by Tapit Trice in his last two starts. In that last race, Prairie Hawk was bumped at the break and failed to establish the good early position he had in his previous two turn races, and that likely cost him as he was eighth after a quarter mile then moved up quickly to sixth then to fourth before that rally took its toll. Even though he gets the extreme outside post for the Tampa Bay Derby, Prairie Hawk may get good position out of the gate because the horse just inside of him, Zydeceaux (11), is a need-the-lead type who should go fast to get as close to the rail as possible before the first turn. Similarly, Dreaming of Kona (8) and Groveland (4) have “early” running styles, so Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Samy Camacho may be in a good position stalking the pacesetters going into that first turn. If so, and if the colt runs the same or better as he did in his win on January 12, he has potential to run a lot better than his odds may suggest he will. One more factor in his favor is his pedigree as he is by Curlin, sire of many a top three year old over the years, and his dam produced 2018 Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip as well.

Tapit Trice (6) has earned back-to-back 96 speed figures which are better than any horse in the field. Nevertheless, although winning both races, the most recent by eight lengths, they were both one-turn races so this is a new task. As a son of Tapit there’s little doubt the colt has the pedigree to compete favorably on the Derby trail and certainly trainer Todd Pletcher has a strong history with three year olds, but just the same it can be tough to bet a horse at very low odds being asked to do something for the first time as is the case here.

Todd Pletcher has another competitor in Shesterkin (9), who is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just twice. He won his debut authoritatively on New Year’s Eve then finished second by eight lengths to Tapit Trice last month. Interestingly enough, Shesterkin pretty much ran second from start to finish in the race, passed by his stablemate while the early leader faded. That is likely the reason blinkers go on for today’s race, not for early speed but to help him focus in the late stages as perhaps he was distracted last time out. Having earned 84 and 82 figures for his first two races to date, he might have some more fight in him this time and that makes him a contender.

Classic Legacy (3) is similar to Prairie Hawk in that he won easily one race before last then didn’t fire in the Sam F. Davis when checking in fourth. Still, he has improved his figures in his last three races, from 82 to 84 to 86. Additionally the colt is making his second start after a two month layoff and gets the services of Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Bill Mott, who trained his half-brother Art Collector to win the 2020 Blue Grass Stakes. A horse with this kind of pedigree in the hands of a Hall-of-Fame trainer is one we should consider as a contender in this year’s Tampa Bay Derby as well.

Win bets:

I will consider a win bet on Prairie Hawk (12) at odds of 4 to 1 or higher. I might also consider win bets on Shesterkin (9) and on Classic Legacy (3) at odds of 6 to 1 or more but would limit my second win bet to the one which is the highest odds near post time.

Exacta:

Box Classic Legacy (3), Tapit Trice (6), Shesterkin (9) and Prairie Hawk (12).

Trifecta:

Box Classic Legacy (3), Tapit Trice (6), Shesterkin (9) and Prairie Hawk (12).