Race 8 at Oaklawn | Saturday March 18 | Post Time 5:22 PM Eastern

Whitmore Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $200,000 | Six Furlongs | Four Year Olds and Upward

Pace analysis:

There’s likely to be a very fast early pace in this race because both Pirate Rick (8) and Cogburn (9), who are drawn next to each other in the gate, ONLY win when leading from the start. Then there’s Edge to Edge (4), who has had the early lead, or been within a head of the lead, in four of his last five races. With Edge to Edge drawn inside the other two “early” pace types and likely to get to the rail first, we can expect the opening fractions to be well faster than average even for this stakes level of sprinters.

Main win contenders:

There might be three main beneficiaries from the hot early pace, foremost among those in terms of betting value being Miles Ahead (3), who opens at 15 to 1 odds. He exits the King Cotton Stakes over the track on January 28, won by Gunite, who just finished second in the $1.5 million Riyadh Dirt Sprint Stakes in Saudi Arabia last month. The runner-up in that race was Tejano Twist (2), with Flash of Mischief (7) checking in fifth at 3 to 1, the same odds Tejano Twist went to post at. Miles Ahead opens at much higher odds than either of the other two but that doesn’t make sense as he out finished Flash of Mischief and was less than two lengths behind Tejano Twist. What’s important to note is Miles Ahead was making only his second start off a three month layoff, as opposed to the other two not having any breaks. Miles Ahead returned from that layoff at the end of December and needed a race when fifth of seven in a stakes at Fair Grounds. He improved strongly from a 93 comeback Equibase Speed Figure to 103 in the King Cotton, and now he’s likely to improve again. Miles Ahead won the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes right before the layoff, at odds of 5 to 2 and with a 107 figure as good as many of the best figures of many other horses  in this field. He also won the Grade 3 Smile Sprint Stakes at Gulfstream Park in the summer of 2021 and the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes at this time last year, so this hard knocking horse with 12 career wins from 26 dirt races has a big shot to post the upset.

Tejano Twist (2) has been very consistent in sprints like this one throughout his career, finishing first or second in six of 7 races. One of those was a big win in the Steel Valley Sprint three races back in November, which was his second among a three race win streak at the distance which ended with his runner-up effort in the King Cotton Stakes at Oaklawn at the end of January. With his last three efforts yielding very consistent, and very strong, 108, 106 and 107 Equibase figures, Tejano Twist would be no surprise if winning or adding to his strong first or second place career record.

Flash of Mischief (7) disappointed pretty badly when fifth of six in the King Cotton at 3 to 1 odds, particularly as he had dominated six weeks earlier over the track when victorious by nearly eight lengths in the Ring the Bell Stakes, with a 105 figure. Torres rode him in both races and rides back, as well as was in the saddle for strong six length win in the David M. Vance Stakes in September. Having rebounded from poor efforts to win many times in his career, Flash of Mischief can return to competitive form in this race.

With some other horses which may have a chance to complete the exacta going to post at odds making those bets worth the risk, we will spread a bit on some tickets. Those other horses are Spankster (1) and Cogburn (9), the former having finished a close up third to the former in a highly rated race over the track on February 5 and the latter, even though likely to battle for the lead and tire a little, having held on well to be second twice when leading early. 

Win bet:

Miles Ahead (3) should definitely be considered for a win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Tejano Twist (2), Miles Ahead (3), Flash of Mischief (7)

Also Tejano Twist (2), Miles Ahead (3), Flash of Mischief (7) over Tejano Twist (2), Miles Ahead (3), Flash of Mischief (7), Spankster (1), Cogburn (9)