Race 13 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday, March 29 | Post Time 7:48 PM Eastern

Arkansas Derby – Grade 1 | Purse $1.5 Million | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

 

Analysis of the likely favorite:

 

Cornucopian (9) is coming into the race as the “greatest thing since sliced bread” or at least regarded as such based on his easily five and three-quarter length win on February 23 in his career debut, earning a field high 108 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. He’s trained by Bob Baffert, winner of four of the last 11 editions of the Arkansas Derby, and there are comparisons to Triple Crown winner Justify, who also made his career debut in February of his three-year-old year, February 18, 2018, to be exact. Two races later, Justify won the Santa Anita Derby on the way to an undefeated six start career. On the other hand, Justify remained at Santa Anita following his debut win and stretched out to a mile for an allowance race victory before the Santa Anita Derby while Cornucopian ships to Arkansas from California while stretching out from six furlongs to nine furlongs. Another horse Cornucopian is being compared to is Taiba, who debuted on March 5, 2022, and who won a six-furlong sprint before winning the Santa Anita Derby. Similarly, Taiba did not ship half-way across the country while stretching out from six to nine furlongs.

Cornucopian earned his win leading from start to finish and although it was an impressive victory and the horse is bred to be a good one, as he’s by Into Mischief, the sire of Florida Derby favorite Sovereignty, Cornucopian opens at 7 to 5 starting odds and gets the extreme outside in a field of nine. Additionally, if he is the type that needs the lead to succeed as it appears, that post could be problematic as Speed King (5) has a better post position and can establish the lead more easily, which puts Cornucopian in at least second position in the early stages, something different than in his debut. Cornucopian may be something special, and although Baffert has had success with Taiba on this maneuver, most horses cannot successfully stretch out from six furlongs to nine furlongs after just a maiden win while stepping into graded stakes competition. That reason and his low odds are enough to look elsewhere for contenders that can provide a profit.

Contenders:

With it being likely that Cornucopian will be the prohibitive favorite, many horses will offer more than decent odds by comparison. Two of those are First Division (2) and Bestfriend Rocket (4), who exit the same races on March 2. That was a mile and one-sixteenth allowance race over the track, in which both ran exceptionally well and continued to show improvement over their previous races. In addition, First Division had a horrible start in the race in which he stumbled badly, starting last of six. On the far turn, he was third, six lengths behind the leader, but despite expending a lot of energy after the bad start, First Division was gaining with every stride to come up a head short on the wire.

Since the race, First Division put in a very strong five-furlong workout in 59.6 second which was the third best on the day, and he gets a jockey change to Brian Hernandez, Jr. for trainer Ken McPeek. You’ll recall that Hernandez, Jr. rode Mystik Dan to a third-place finish in the 2024 Arkansas Derby prior to his tremendous effort to win the Kentucky Derby. First Division has the pedigree to run well too, as his dam produced Corningstone, a stakes winner who earned more than three-quarters of a million dollars and Ice Cold, another stakes winner. Although the 92 Equibase Speed Figure First Division earned in his last race is nowhere near the 108 Cornucopian earned in his recent win, nor the 104 figure Coal Battle (8) earned winning the Rebel Stakes five weeks ago, First Division has a lot of upside, not to mention his 20 to 1 starting odds make him well worth the risk for wagering in this race.

Similarly, Bestfriend Rocket (4) who won that race on March 2 by a head, is also improving quickly and could be a factor. He’s won three of four two-turn races he’s run, the most recent after moving to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who saddled Just Steel for a runner-up effort at 35 to 1 odds in last year’s Arkansas Derby. Jockey Nik Juarez, who rode American Promise to victory for Lukas in the Virginia Derby two weeks ago, rode Bestfriend Rocket for the first time in that victory earlier this month, and with another step forward this colt by Curlin also has an upset chance in this race.

Coal Battle (8) has won four in a row including the local prep for this race, the Rebel, on February 23. This colt just shows up every time, and with a career-best 104 Equibase Figure earned in the Rebel certainly deserves strong consideration once again.

Sandman (6) rallied for third in that race after a runner-up effort one month earlier in the Southwest Stakes. He too is on an improving pattern of Equibase Speed Figures, with a 101-figure earned in the Rebel, and should be closing strongly in the late stages once again.

Last, but not least, Speed King (5) ran the best race of his career one before last when leading from start to finish in the Southwest Stakes on January 25, earning a 101 figure. He did not run so well in the Rebel when his early speed was rationed. This leads me to believe “go to the front at the start” tactics will be used once again, and none of the four horses drawn inside in the gate should keep him from getting the lead from the start. The question is whether John Velazquez, on Cornucopian, will try for the front from the start or be content to sit second. If that occurs, Speed King could run as well as he did in the Southwest and post the upset, as he opens at 15 to 1.

Bets:  

Win: Considering the tremendous reward for the risk offered on both First Division (2) and Bestfriend Rocket (4), I would have no problem betting both to win, or to win and place, at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

Additionally, I wouldn’t hesitate to bet Speed King (5) to win at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.

Exactas: Again, the value here is getting either (or both) First Division or Bestfriend Rocket in first or second so they can be used as keys in the exacta as follows:

First Division (2) and Bestfriend Rocket (4) over First Division (2), Bestfriend Rocket (4), Speed King (5), Sandman (6), Coal Battle (8) and Cornucopian (9).

First Division (2), Bestfriend Rocket (4), Speed King (5), Sandman (6), Coal Battle (8) and Cornucopian (9) over First Division (2) and Bestfriend Rocket (4)