Race 6 at Santa Anita | Saturday March 4 | Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern

San Felipe Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Top Contenders:

The San Felipe Stakes is the last prep for the Santa Anita Derby next month and it offers the first chance for a number of horses to get Road to the Derby points, particularly four horses formerly in the Baffert barn – National Treasure (2), Hejazi (7), Fort Bragg (9) and Mr Fisk (11). In spite of that, only two of those can run well enough to win in my opinion, namely Hejazi and National Treasure.

With that in mind I’ll start with a horse trained by Hall-of-Fame conditioner Dick Mandella. That is Geaux Rocket Ride (8), who won his only start, a sprint, on January 29. Going from maiden to stakes as three year olds isn’t easy but it is easier at that time in history, particularly on the west coast and in this field, where SIX of the 11 horses exit maiden races, one other broke his maiden just one before last and a couple of the rest are overmatched. On the other hand, Geaux Rocket Ride appears to be just the horse to make the jump up from maiden to “Road to the Derby” stakes, and Mandella did the SAME THING with Omaha Beach in 2016 when the colt won the Rebel Stakes in only the second start of his career. This colt is bred to adore two turns as he’s by Candy Ride out of an Uncle Mo Mare and the 101 Equibase Speed Figure was fantastic as it was the same figure as National Treasure earned when third and beaten a length in the Sham Stakes three weeks earlier, better than the 98 figure Chase the Chaos (1) earned winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate two weeks later and not too dissimilar to the 105 figure likely co-favorite Hejazi (with National Treasure) earned breaking his maiden at the same six furlong trip two weeks before Geaux Rocket Ride won. In addition to Mandella going from maiden winner to stakes winner with Omaha Beach, he also saddled Soothsay to win the Santa Anita Oaks two years ago off a maiden win. With Prat riding back and with a very sharp six furlong workout since raced, Geaux Rocket Ride gets top billing in this race.

National Treasure (2) was returning from two months off in the Sham on January 8 so may have improving to do. He finished second behind stablemate Cave Rock in the American Pharoah Stakes over the track last October then third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where Cave Rock was second and Forte the winner. He earned 99 and 100 figures before the layoff than a 101 figure two months ago so improvement is forecast and Sham winner Reincarnate finished a troubled third in the Rebel last week while runner-up Newgate won the Robert B. Lewis before going on the sidelines with an injury. Don’t expect value for win bets, however, as National Treasure was the 6 to 5 betting favorite in that race.

Hejazi (7) took four tries to break his maiden but one of those was then third in the American Pharoah behind stablemates Cave Rock and National Treasure, and when returning off a three month layoff on January 15 he ran a career-best race with a 105 figure. Granted it was in a sprint, but Baffert moved Taiba to the Yakteen barn off a maiden last year to take the Santa Anita Derby so Hejazi is another contender, but also not a good win bet at very likely low odds.

A horse with price potential to fill out a quartet of possible win contenders here is Skinner (10), who won’t be disadvantaged by the outside post as he comes from behind. He returned from three months off on 2/12 at a mile and ran as if he had not been off a bit, rallying from sixth to draw off easily by three lengths at the end Trainer Shirreffs did well with a similar pattern in 2020 when Honor A.P. finished second in this race off a maiden win. He’s likely to be ignored in the wagering relative to the ex-Baffert trainees and could post the upset off a 94 figure plus second off the layoff improvement. It must also be noted he’s the ONLY horse in the field with a two turn win last out this year on conventional dirt except Mr. Fisk (who is disadvantaged from the extreme outside).

Win bets:

I will consider win bets on Geaux Rocket Ride (8) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

I will consider a second, smaller win bet, on Skinner (10) at odds of 9 to 2 or higher.

Exacta:

Geaux Rocket Ride (8) over National Treasure (2), Hejazi (7) and Skinner (10).

National Treasure (2), Hejazi (7) and Skinner (10) over Geaux Rocket Ride (8) for a smaller amount than the exacta above.

Trifecta:

Geaux Rocket Ride (8) over ALL over National Treasure (2), Hejazi (7) and Skinner (10). When played in conjunction with the first of the two exactas above, this covers all possibilities if Geaux Rocket Ride wins and if any of the other three finish second or third. If two of the three finish second AND third, we win both bets