Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 11 | Post Time 5:27 PM Eastern

Mamzelle Stakes | Purse $225,000 | Five and One Half Furlongs on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Win contenders:

Cloudwalker (5) and Nice as Pie (2) share top billing, with Twirl Around (10) and Imaboutago (12) not far behind in terms of probability to have an impact.

Cloudwalker (5) has run just twice in her career to date. Both races were on the grass as this one is scheduled to be, and both were at the same five and one-half furlong distance of today’s race. The reason that may be important is, even though this filly has about as much chance as the other three main contenders, she’s potentially going to be higher odds than the other three because she appears less experienced, and unlike two of the others, hasn’t run in a stakes race yet. However, at this time of year many three-year-old fillies in the division are also lightly raced and have not yet run in a stakes race on grass but can improve and be competitive at the level. In her debut last October, Cloudwalker showed a lot of maturity when rallying from seventh after a quarter mile, to third entering the stretch, before putting in a powerful late run to draw off by three lengths at the finish.

Returning six months later on April 20, Cloudwalker once again was seventh after a quarter mile and rallied to fifth, three lengths off the lead, with an eighth of a mile to run. At that point she tried to find a path to run but there was none. She ended up blocked until the point in the race the winner was uncatchable. However, Cloudwalker did not give up and finished strongly to miss second by a head. Now that she’s making her second start off six months off and with a jockey change to Torres, with any kind of luck enabling her to find a path to run early during the stretch drive, Cloudwalker can run back to her sharp debut winning effort and earn a stakes win in the process.

Nice as Pie (2) debuted on conventional dirt last August. That is a totally IRRELEVANT race because she was off for five months and came back on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park, where she won her comeback and three in a row since then. The last two of those were stakes races and all were with jockey Beschizza in the saddle as today. Her breeding and the fact she ran so well on all-weather both suggest she will like the turf, and she recently put in a sizzling half-mile drill on May 3 which tells us she’s ready to potentially win another stakes race.

Twirl Around (10) was the horse that held off Cloudwalker for second by a head last month at this distance on turf. That was her first try on turf after being entered in two other turf races and remaining to run in them on dirt. She won the first of those last fall here at Churchill Downs, powerfully by five lengths, and she finished second in the other. In the race last month, she was very game in holding second by inches and it was her first race in three months so even better can be expected here.

Imaboutago (12) is the speed of the speed and is drawn to the outside of most, if not all, of the other “early” speed types. This should enable here at Gaffalione, who rides for the first time and who chooses this filly over Twirl Around and Parola Sicura (7), who he rode last month, to get to the lead before the first turn. That’s what she did in both starts to date, both turf sprints like this one including the one on March 20 where she finished three lengths in front of the runner-up. She’s faster overall than any of the others entered in this race by virtue of having earned a 97 Equibase Speed Figure in her last start and she can improve as this will be her second start after more than three months off. If there is a knock on Imaboutago, other than odds possibly too low for a win bet, it is that there is potential for Niki Nine Doors (11), Twirling Queen (8) and possibly China Blue (1) also to want the lead and possibly force Imaboutago to go faster than is good to be able to hold off the closers like Cloudwalker, Nice as Pie and Twirl Around.

Win Bets: We should strongly consider betting both Cloudwalker (5) and Nice as Pie (2) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher. Twirl Around (10) can be considered for a win bet at odds of 4 to 1 or more. Imaboutago (12) would have minimum odds of 7 to 2 but is highly probable to be well below that threshold.

Exactas:

With a 14-horse field there is an opportunity to make a nice profit even boxing four horses in the exacta. My plan is to take the top three contenders and add an additional horse, on different tickets, which capitalizes if any two of the top three finish first and second in any order, but also gives us a good deal of value if one of the higher odds horses ends up as part of the exacta:

The exacta boxes are:

2, 5, 10, 12

2, 5, 10, 6 (#6 is Tipsy Runner)

2, 5, 10, 3 (#3 is Big Trouble)

2, 5, 10, 7 (#7 is Parola Sicura)

2, 5, 10, 9 (#9 is Toupie)

OPTIONALLY, you can play five horse exacta boxes, using all four-win contenders and including one of the likely high odds horses, as follows:

2, 5, 6, 10, 12

2, 3, 5, 10, 12

2, 5, 7, 10, 12

2, 5, 9, 10, 12

This way if any two of the main contenders finishes first and second, we win four times, and if any of the four main contenders combines with either Tipsy Runner (6), Big Trouble (3), Parola Sicura (7) or Toupie (9) we win what could be a very profitable wager.