Race 7 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 18 | Post Time 9:05 PM Eastern

Louisville Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $250,000 | One and One-Half Miles on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

Win contenders:

I have to start with Sugoi (7), who is one of four horses entered from the barn of Mike Maker, who wins a lot of these types of marathon (eleven furlongs or more) turf races. The other three are Starting Over (1), Guntown (4) and Quadra Island (4) and it may be Maker scratches one or two of them, but on the other hand they all have different ownership groups so maybe not. Nevertheless, Sugoi appears to be an easy lone front runner in this field, as no other horse has ever shown a liking to be on the lead in the early stages. Sugoi was claimed for $50,000 by Maker out of his last start, a win on dirt at a shorter distance at Keeneland, where he sat second for the first seven furlongs before getting up to win by a neck. Sugoi ran the same way when winning last December on the all-weather at Turfway Park, and he’s finished first or second five times in seven previous turf tries. Sugoi also won at 10 furlongs, and as a son of Karakontie, sire of LAST YEAR’s Louisville Stakes winner (Foreign Relations), there’s no doubt he can run this far, especially for Maker, who has a penchant for turning middle-distance runners into marathoners. The 108 Equibase Speed Figure Sugoi earned winning in February at 10 furlongs is the SAME as the 108-figure starting even money favorite Bold Act earned when third in the Elkhorn Stakes last month, so they have the same probability to run their best races and win. However, Sugoi starts at 12 to 1 odds and therefore gets top billing.

Starting Over (1) is another very logical contender, also from the barn of Maker, who is already proven in these types of races. He won the Colonial Cup Stakes last September at this distance, in his first marathon distance race since joining the Maker barn in the spring, and he won the Mac Diarmada Stakes at 11 furlongs when last seen in March. He finished second off nearly four months away in January and is coming back from two and one-half months off, ready to run competitively enough for a first or second place finish and at decent odds opening at 4 to 1.

Bold Act (8) must be used on exacta and similar tickets as he can win, but he doesn’t have to. He was the odds-on favorite in the Elkhorn and really didn’t mount a serious challenge behind stablemate Silver Knott, who came back to win again. He didn’t have an excuse as he had won seven weeks earlier, and he won the Sycamore Stakes at this 12-furlong trip last October. He’s won five of 12 on turf in his career and in the Sycamore last October he earned a 117 figure which would be good enough to win here if repeated, but not that good as Starting Over earned a 114 figure when second in the similar McKnight Stakes, and he is a closer who, like many of the others in here, may be compromised if Sugoi gets an easy early lead on slow fractions as I think will be the case. As such, he’s a poor win bet at low odds but certainly should be in the top three at the end.

Also, for exactas, #3 Avenue, who nearly won the Hollywood Turf Cup at this distance earlier in his career and #12 Strong Tide, who has won a graded stakes at this distance, deserve some consideration as they open at 12 to 1 and 30 to 1 odds. Utah Beach (10), who has never finished worse than second in seven races and is two for two at the distance, is another contender, BUT, he’s never run in a stakes and appears overbet starting at 7 to 2 so can only be used on exacta tickets in my opinion.

Win Bets: Sugoi (7) at 3 to 1 or more. Starting Over (1) can also be considered for a win bet, at the same 3 to 1 odds or higher.

Exactas:

Box Sugoi (7), Starting Over (1), Bold Act (8)

Box Sugoi (7), Starting Over (1), Utah Beach (10)

Box Sugoi (7), Starting Over (1), Bold Act (8), Avenue (3)

Box Sugoi (7), Starting Over (1), Bold Act (8), Avenue (3), Strong Tide (12)