Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 25 | Post Time 5:27 PM Eastern

Keertana Stakes | Purse $250,000 | One and One-Half Miles on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

Win contenders:

Considering last week’s mile and one-half stakes at Churchill Downs, the Louisville Stakes, resulted in top pick Sugoi leading from start to finish as predicted and returning $41.50 (for $2), there’s every reason to take to believe Sand and Sea (6) may be capable of doing the same thing in the Keertana Stakes, although I don’t expect her to pay that much even though she opens at 15 to 1 odds. Sand and Sea won four of 10 races last year, finishing second in four more and only worse than third in two of those. Those two where she was off the board were irrelevant as they were on conventional dirt. On turf and all-weather (similar to turf), this mare is tough as nails, particularly when leading early, as she won three in a row from October 31 through New Year’s Eve. In all three of those wins she established the lead and got more comfortable and stronger as the race went on. Two of those were $100,000 handicap races so this stakes level is just about the same. She was off from January 27 until coming back in a six furlong dirt sprint on May 6, which obviously was nothing more than a prep for longer races so it is totally irrelevant. Reunited with Reylu Gutierrez, who was in the saddle for two of her four wins last year, she should be the speed of this field and able to duplicate her best efforts from 2023, any of which are good enough to win in this field.

Heavenly Appointed (1) is another which won three in a row recently, from December 23 through February 25. All three came after adding blinkers and with Gomez in the saddle as today. Gomez did not ride the filly when she was fourth last month and his getting back on board could lead to a return to winning form for excellent trainer Graham Motion.

Chop Chop (2) opens as the 9 to 5 betting favorite, so has less value as a win bet as compared to either Sand and Sea and Heavenly Appointed. Additionally, she’s just as happy to finish second as win, evidenced by having finished second four times in 11 races this year and last, while winning three of those races. On a more positive note, Chop Chop won the only time she ran this mile and one-half turf trip, taking the Bewitch Stakes at Keeneland last month in her most recent race. Certainly if she repeats that effort she could be tough to beat. For me she’s a must to use on exacta tickets with the other two top contenders at the least.

Specifically because Sand and Sea starts at 15 to 1 and Heavenly Appointed starts at 6 to 1 there are opportunities for using a couple of other horses in second on some exacta tickets for additional profit. Those are Atomic Blonde (4) and Vergara (5). Atomic Blonde finished well for second behind Chop Chop last month in the Bewitch, while Vergara has some speed and will likely be second behind Sand and Sea for most of the race. She hasn’t shown much finishing kick in her last three races but may be good for a minor award.

Win Bets: Sand and Sea (6) at 3 to 1 or more. Heavenly Appointed (1) can also be considered for a win bet, at the same 3 to 1 odds or higher.

Exactas:

Box Heavenly Appointed (1), Chop Chop (2) and Sand and Sea (6)

Sand and Sea (6) over Heavenly Appointed (1), Chop Chop (2), Atomic Blonde (4) and Vergara (5)

Heavenly Appointed (1), Chop Chop (2), Atomic Blonde (4) and Vergara (5) over Sand and Sea (6)

Heavenly Appointed (1), Chop Chop (2), Sand and Sea (6) over Heavenly Appointed (1), Chop Chop (2), Atomic Blonde (4), Sand and Sea (6)