Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 27 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern

Keertana Stakes | Purse $225,000 | One Mile and One-Half on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward

Miss Yearwood (5) ran six times on dirt to start her career, winning once, but since moving exclusively to grass has won two of five times. Her best effort on the lawn wasn’t one of those but was when she finished third, beaten just a length, last summer in the 11 furlong Jockey Club Oaks Invitational at Saratoga, won by McKulick, a top turf runner who would be the odds-on favorite in this race. Miss Yearwood took nearly six months off after that and needed a race in her March 4 comeback, also at a mile, which is too short for her best. Stretching out to a mile and one-half for the Orchid Stakes on April 1, she ran poorly but just 25 days later returned to top form, also at this 12 furlong turf trip, putting in a visually impressive later rally from seventh and last to win by three lengths in the end. Landeros has been up for her last two wins as well as her third place effort in the Jockey Club Oaks and I expect Miss Yearwood to run as well or better than she did four weeks ago, earning her first stakes win in the process, posting the mild upset as she opens at 6 to 1.

Viburnum (12) opens at double the odds of Miss Yearwood, 12 to 1, so must be considered for any and all wagers we make involving this race as well. She has finished first or second in nine of 19 career starts on grass, and she has won at 12 furlongs. That win was in the Via Borghese Stakes in December, which was scheduled for turf but run on the all-weather course at Gulfstream Park. She also ran poorly in the Orchid in April, and unlike Miss Yearwood, Viburnum has not run since then. Adam Beschizza has ridden her well in the past, particularly last summer at Kentucky Downs when she won at a mile and five-sixteenths, and if this gal runs as she did in the Via Borghese, she’s going to surprise a few bettors and reward us with a nice profit.

Sparkle Blue (10) and Lovely Princess (7) are two more horses to consider as contenders. Sparkle Blue was returning from four and one-half moths off three weeks ago when finishing sixth of seven in the Modesty Stakes. Two before that, she won the Grade 3 Valley View Stakes so she fits at this level and in spite of never having run at this 12 furlong trip she has the pedigree for it. The win last October came in her second start off a layoff so improvement off her May 5 start can be expected. Lovely Princess is also making her second start after a layoff, this one for five months. The effort before the layoff wasn’t bad when fourth of 10 in the tougher Grade 1 Mrs. Revere Stakes on the Churchill Downs turf and before that she won with a nice rally from seventh of 11. She won that comeback race last month in an allowance field and appears capable of handling the step up in class and running competitively right back. 

Bets:  

Win Bets: I feel strongly both Miss Yearwood (5) and Viburnum (12) can be bet to win. I’ll bet Miss Yearwood at odds of 3 to 1 or more and Viburnum at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

In this situation we should set a goal of how much we want to win and bet according to that goal and the odds. For example, if we wanted to win $120 dollars and if Miss Yearwood had odds of 6 to 1, we would bet $20 (for a $140 return and a $120 profit). Similarly if Viburnum had odds of 12 to 1, we would bet $10 (for a $130 return and a $120 profit).

Exacta and Trifecta: Box Miss Yearwood (5), Viburnum (12), Sparkle Blue (10) and Lovely Princess (7).