Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 11 | Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern

River City Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

  

With a full field of 12 likely given there are three also-eligibles which can run if any in the main body of the field should withdraw, we have a wide open race full of profit potential. The contenders are determined by the pace of the race and normally that would entail finding two or three “need the lead” types and looking at the best of the stalkers and closers. However, in this case with the makeup of the field, I think in spite of the fact Cellist (1), F Five (2), Stitched (9), Injunction (10) and one of the also-eligibles, Accredit (13), the fact is none of them have had to run fats on the lead.

That means Dominican Pioneer (7) is by far the fastest of any of the horses which may go for the lead, and therefore he could have an easy lead all to himself from the start and particularly with the longer run to the first turn in this mile and one-eighth race. That’s exactly what happened two months ago on September 13 at Kentucky Downs in a classified allowance field, where Dominican Pioneer established the lead from the start and never gave any of the other seven runners a chance to catch him. Winning when leading from start to finish at Kentucky Downs is nearly impossible given the right turn on the backstretch, sweeping final bend, uphill climb to the finish and one of the longest stretches in North America. That effort earned Dominican Pioneer a career-best and more important, field high 115 Equibase Speed Figure, better than the figures of the eight entrants with previous stakes wins. Although John Velazquez gets off to ride Smokin T (6), Gerardo Corrales getting on for trainer Wesley Ward is just fine and they have teamed up to win 25 races from 75 starters going back to the beginning of 2022. A lightly raced four year old with a three for six record on grass, and having missed by a head on the wire the only time he’s run over the Churchill Downs turf, Dominican Pioneer has a strong chance to successfully play “come catch me” and win this year’s River City takes.

Harlan Estate (12) won’t have a problem with his outside post, not only because of the long run to the first turn but also because he can run as far back as last if need be. One before lasts, Harlan Estate won the Tapit Stakes, also at Kentucky Downs, rallying from eighth of 11 after a half-mile had been run and widening on the field in the final yards. The reason for that big effort was the addition of blinkers not worn for since this past February, and that really got him to focus and run well. He was overmatched in the Grade 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland last month but the drop in class, and the fact he missed by a nose on the Churchill Downs turf at this distance in May, gives him a big shot of getting up in time if I am wrong about the pace scenario and a number horses all try for the early lead.

Cellist (1) gets the ground saving rail and just ran the best race of his career when leading late and settling for second, gamely so by a neck over the third horse, in the Sycamore Stakes last month at Keeneland. Cutting back from 12 furlongs to nine is fine as he’s won at the trip, and he’s two for four on the Churchill Turf. Garcia has ridden him fine in three straight and with a stalking style and the rail allowing the jockey and trainer to sit second behind Dominican Pioneer from the start and take over if that one falters, Cellist rounds out a trio of win contenders in this race.

There are number of horses (in addition to the win contenders) which might complete the exacta, most notably Red Run (3), Stitched (9), Injunction (10) and Seige of Boston (11). In addition, if Accredit (13), Beatbox (14) or Street Ready (15) draw into the race they might be considered in the second and third positions on exacta and trifecta tickets.  

Bets:

Win:

Dominican Pioneer (7) can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more.

Cellist (1) and Harlan Estate (12) can be considered for win bets at 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7) and Harlan Estate (12)

Optionally, consider Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7) and Harlan Estate (12) over Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7), Harlan Estate (12). Red Run (3), Stitched (9), Injunction (10) and Siege of Boston (11).

Trifectas:

Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7) and Harlan Estate (12) Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7) and Harlan Estate (12) over ALL over Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7) and Harlan Estate (12).

If all 12 run the cost of this bet at the $0.50 minimum level is $30. If we play a $5 exacta box of the three main contenders the cost is also $30, for a total of $60, and we win if any two of the three finish first and second OR first and third. We win both the exacta and trifecta if all three finish in the top 3. In a full field of 12 with no strong favorite there appears to be a lot of reward for the risk in making both bets.