Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 18 | Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern

Chilukki Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile |Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward

 

The 5 to 2 morning line favorite is Hidden Connection (3) and the 7 to 2 second choice in starting odds is Hot and Sultry (9), and perhaps they will be lower odds than the other seven near post time, but NEITHER are standouts by any means and they might just be a bit vulnerable as favorites. Hidden Connection has NO WINS this year in seven races, and four second place finishes. I can understand why she might be the favorite, as she lost to recent Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Idiomatic in June, but she was fifth in that race and never threatened. She was second behind Search Results when last seen in September, here at Churchill Downs in the Locust Grove stakes, but the Search Results ran poorly in the Breeders’ Cup. The last time Hidden Connection won a race was last December, and it was an allowance race at that. She certainly could be part of the exacta or trifecta but she’s not as probable a win contender as others.

Similarly, Hot and Sultry (9) has won just once in four races this year, and that win came at six furlongs. She was last seen finishing fourth in May behind Matareya, Wicked Halo (who won a stakes last weekend) and recent Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Goodnight Olive, but that’s hardly a reason she is a strong win contender here.

Instead, I’m starting with a horse who LOVES TO WIN, Oeuvre (4), who has won 13 of 16 races this year and last, on turf, on dirt, and at four different tracks. Her most recent effort was at a mile on turf around two-turns at Keeneland so this one turn mile on dirt is no problem, and she can win on the lead from the start or from off the pace. Trainer Block has an excellent record when switching surfaces, 20 for 71 over the lasts three years, and the 104 Equibase Speed Figure Oeuvre earned winning the last time she ran on dirt, in July, stacks up well with horses at lower odds than her 5 to 1 morning line. Jockey Loveberry has been aboard for six of her last eight wins, including three on dirt, and comparing her desire to win, and her physical condition, to many in here, Oeuvre has to be considered more strongly than many.

Nostalgic (1) is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win. She won the Gazelle Stakes in New York in the spring of last year to qualify for the Kentucky Oaks but managed only a 10^th place effort. She preceded to lose five in a row over the rest of 2022 but one of those efforts, in November of 2022, was notable as she missed by a neck in the Turnback the Alarm Stakes in a then career-best effort. Rested EIGHT months until this past July, Nostalgic missed by a neck with a career-best 104 Equibase speed Figure, then repeated that figure and won one month later, flattered by the runner-up winning her next start. That second effort also earned a 104 figure and it must be noted BOTH were at the same one mile trip as the Chilukki Stakes. Off the win, Nostalgic ran in the mile and one-eighth (two-turn) Beldame stakes, finishing third behind two horses at the top of the division. Winner Randomized finished second behind Idiomatic in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff two weeks ago and runner-up A Mo Reay was going to run in that race until an injury put her on the sidelines. Cutting back from two-turns to what appears to be her best distance, if Nostalgic repeats either of her efforts from July or August, she has a strong chance to win this race.

Another contender, but not as strong as the top two, is Falconet (7), who beat Hidden Connection in the Groupie Doll stakes at this distance in August, before a poor seventh of nine finish in the Locust Grove. The Groupie Doll effort came off a layoff similar to the one she’s returning from today, and she gets top jockey Saez riding for Pletcher. With nine first or second place finishes in 11 races excluding the Locust Grove, this filly may have what it takes to compete with her best effort.

Additionally, She Can’t Sing (5) can be used on some exacta tickets in the second position. She won this race last year at 7 to 2 odds when leading from start to finish. Two months prior she finished third on turf in a stakes and having been off three months following a fourth place effort on turf, her pattern is a bit similar, except it must be noted last year’s Chilukki field only had six horses and this has nine and that She Can’t Sing has failed to win, or to come close to winning, in five races since her victory one year ago.

Bets:

Win: Both Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1) should be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1) over Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1), Hidden Connection (3), She Can’t Sing (5), Falconet (7), Hot and Sultry (9)

Trifectas:

Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1) over Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1), Hidden Connection (3), She Can’t Sing (5), Falconet (7), Hot and Sultry (9) over Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1), Hidden Connection (3), She Can’t Sing (5), Falconet (7), Hot and Sultry (9)