Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 23 | Post Time 5:25 PM Eastern

Commonwealth Turf Stakes | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Three Year Olds

Analysis and top contenders:

Although last week’s top pick Surface to Air won nicely at odds of 5 to 1, he was disqualified. I think we have another strong play this week in Lagynos (7), who enters this race as one of four to have run four weeks ago in the very similar Bryan Station Stakes at Keeneland. The other three are Herchee (8), who finished third, Evade (9), who finished fourth and My Boy Prince (1), who faded to ninth after setting a sizzling early pace. Of the four horses coming out of the Bryan Station, Lagynos had the worst trip by far and I would go so far as to call it “brutal” because he was full of run but in a pack of horses and despite angling out, still never had a clear path to run. The fact he finished fifth of 11 and just a length from the runner-up is an indicator that he ran much better than it looks on paper, and the jockey change to Flavien Prat is HUGE because Prat is having the best year of his career. Two prior to the Bryan Station, Lagynos rallied from fourth to make the lead with an eighth of a mile to run in the Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga, then engaged with eventual winner Neat to battle the last 220 yards, ending up a neck short on the wire while still a neck in front of the next horse. Lagynos also has good experience over the Churchill Downs turf, having finished second in the Audubon Stakes in June and third just before that in the American Turf Stakes on Derby Day. If he can repeat either of those two efforts, or his last effort (without the traffic trouble), Lagynos could be very tough to keep from running by the field in the stretch to win.

Dashman (3) also had trouble in his most recent race, the Jockey Club Derby Invitational in New York on October 5. Prior to that, Dashman had won two in a row, then in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational he was fourth with an eighth of a mile to run when his path was taken and he lost critical momentum. He couldn’t recover from that trouble and ran evenly in fourth in the final eighth. With a jockey change to Saez and continuing the improving pattern from his July and September starts, which followed an eight-month layoff, Dashman certainly may have what it takes to win particularly as the runner-up from the Derby Invitational came back to win the Hill Prince Stakes.

Horses to consider for second on exacta tickets, in addition to the two-win contenders above, are Ak Sar Ben Derby (4) and Will Take It (6). Ak Sar Ben Derby who won the Hawthorne Derby on October 6, but it is questionable as to how good the horses behind him were. Will Take It rallied from 11^th of 12 to get third, a nose from the runner-up, in a highly rated allowance race at Keeneland last month. That was versus older horses, so the move to three-year-olds only makes up for going from allowance to stakes. Herchee (8) and Evade (9), who also come out of the Bryan Station, might be considered for some exacta tickets we play but both get possibly disadvantageous outside posts, and both have run evenly in the final eighth of a mile in their last two starts, not showing the late kick necessary to win on grass.

Bets:

Lagynos (7) and Dashman (3) can both be considered for win bets at 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Lagynos (7) and Dashman (3) over Lagynos (7), Dashman (3), Ak Sar Ben Derby (4), Will Take It (6), Herchee (8) and Evade (9).