Race 12 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 25 | Post Time 6:18 PM Eastern

Fern Creek Stakes | Purse $225,000 | Six and One-Half Furlongs | Fillies, Two Years Olds

  

Early pace analysis:

Although Youalmosthadme (1) earned all three of her wins (in five races) while leading after a half-mile, she did rate (relax) kindly when second, a length behind the pacesetter, when winning the Myrtlewood Stakes last month at Keeneland. Although she does get the rail it does appear likely she can take up a stalking trip in the early stages, but that is not guaranteed as even a top jockey like Tyler Gaffalione may not be able to get her to relax if she has going to the front on her mind.

Nevertheless, even if Youalmosthadme does relax early, there is more than enough early speed so that the opening quarter mile and half mile is going to be much faster than average. This is because Irish Maxima (12) has had the lead early in all three races (including two wins) and adds blinkers to accentuate her speed. Additionally, Field Lass (8) has had the lead in the opening quarter mile in three of four races including her only win. Similarly, Pinotslilgirl (7) led from start to finish in her only win, as did Halina’s Forte (4). As such, it may only take two of the four “early” pace types to battle for the lead at any cost, and with the other two close at hand and likely going faster than average, all four should be tiring late, giving the stalkers and closers the best shot to succeed.

Top win contenders:

Sharp Tune (10) leads the group, having won over the track four weeks ago and showing a lot of professionalism in doing so. Although she won when leading from start to finish in her debut, at Churchill Downs in May, in her second career start she started fifth of nine early then moved up to fourth, then third, before moving past the leaders to draw off by a length. Although Tyler Gaffalione gets off to ride Youalmosthadme, Joel Rosario is more than an adequate replacement and the filly’s outside post helps insure she can let the early speed types do their thing while not getting in any traffic trouble before accelerating to win her third race in three career starts.

Youalmosthadme (1) is already a multiple stakes winner and that counts for a lot. Her other win at this level came in May in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes here at Churchill Downs, and she also finished second in the one-turn mile Pocahontas Stakes in September. The cut back to six furlongs helped her in the Myrtlewood and she would be no surprise if earning her fourth win in her sixth start. The only reason she’s listed as the second win contender here behind Sharp Tune is because it is very likely Youalmosthadme is going to go to post at lower odds so offers a bit less value for a win bet.

Fibber (2) finished well in the Myrtlewood last month, rallying from last of nine after checking shortly after the start and losing about three lengths. Jockey Murrill didn’t panic and let the filly settled in seventh, then encouraged her to rally, passing six horses to end up third at the wire. Since then, Fibber put in a very strong half-mile workout at Churchill Downs, where she won in her only start over the track on September 14, rallying from last of eight to draw off late. Considering the likelihood of a contested and fast early pace, Fibber could be closing fastest of all to win this race if she breaks a bit better than she did in the Myrtlewood and gets a mid-pack early position.

Worth consideration for exacta tickets played is Ma Rae’s Girl (6), who showed a good bit of maturity in her one and only start, on October 19 at Keeneland. In that race the filly was third after a quarter mile then moved up to engage the leaders while four paths wide on the far turn. She showed a quick burst of energy to be in front by more than a length with en eighth of a mile to go and held that margin to the wire. However, it must be noted the favorite stumbled at the start and might’ve won otherwise but just the same being as this race is only the second career start for Ma Rae’s Girl she should not be counted out as a possible contender, especially when considering exacta and trifecta wagers in this race.

Bets:

Win: As I think all three win contenders – Sharp Tune (10), Youalmosthadme (1) and Fibber (2) have about a 25% to 30% chance to win, fair (minimum) odds should be 5 to 2 and so we should consider win bets on one or two of them at or above those 5 to 2 minimum odds.

Exactas: Sharp Tune (10), Youalmosthadme (1) and Fibber (2) over Sharp Tune (10), Youalmosthadme (1) and Fibber (2), Ma Rae’s Girl (6).

Trifectas: Sharp Tune (10), Youalmosthadme (1) and Fibber (2) over Sharp Tune (10), Youalmosthadme (1) and Fibber (2), Ma Rae’s Girl (6) over Sharp Tune (10), Youalmosthadme (1) and Fibber (2), Ma Rae’s Girl (6).