Buy TicketsRace 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 30 | Post Time 5:18 PM Eastern
Fern Creek Stakes | Purse $225,000 | Six- and One-Half Furlongs | Fillies, Two Years Old
Analysis and top contenders:
Two extremely strong win contenders stand out in this race – Impulse Buy (9) and Echo Sound (1), and among the two I suspect Impulse Buy will go to post at the higher odds of the pair, so we’ll start with her. Impulse Buy finished second in her debut this summer then improved markedly to win her second career start, on October 5, powerfully by 11 lengths and geared down in the late stages. She improved again in her most recent race, the Tempted Stakes in New York, where she finished second, earning a career-best 93 Equibase Speed Figure in that one turn mile race. Cutting back in distance, Impulse Buy could have a bit more extra in the final stages as compared to Echo Sound, who is three-for-three, with all three races having been run at six furlongs. Impulse Buy gets a better post than Echo Sound as well, which allows her to stalk the likely early pacesetters, of which there are a few in Rosato (8), Shezafunkydrummer (7) and Viral Plane Lady (11), who adds blinkers. Gaffalione, who was aboard Impulse Buy for the 11 lengths win but not for her debut or her runner-up effort last time, gets back on, another sign for a potential repeat of the resounding effort put forth in October. In the Tempted, Impulse Buy stumbled to her knees a stride out of the gate then quickly recovered to lead but eventual winner Stunner was more determined so Impulse Buy sat in second but could make no headway. Nevertheless, the stumble did cost her a bit of early energy and so with a clean start she could return to the winner’s circle.
Echo Sound (1) is undefeated in three starts and that’s why I think she will go to post at lower odds than Impulse Buy. Like Impulse Buy, Echo Sound has run faster in each of her three career starts, with a 92 Equibase Speed Figure earned winning the Myrtlewood Stakes on October 25 in her most recent race. She doesn’t need the lead to win, having sat off the pace in the early stages in all three starts to date, one of them with Saez in the saddle as today. That win, on September 12, came here at Churchill Downs, so Echo Sound does have experience over the track which Impulse Buy lacks. As such, it would be no surprise if Echo Sound emerged with her perfect record intact.
Praying (5) is a horse we can use to complete the trifecta at the least, and perhaps the exacta at decent odds. She was 15 to 1 last month in the Myrtlewood when second to Echo Sound, and in the race, she made a wide bid for the lead to open up by a length with an eighth of a mile to run before being passed. That was a career best effort, and John Velazquez was up for the first time and rides back. She’s never been worse than second in four races and appears the best of the other nine but not as good as either Impulse Buy or Echo Sound
Bets:
Win: Impulse Buy (9) should be considered for a win bet at 3 to 2 odds or higher and would be considered a low odds overlay in this race. Echo Sound (1) can be considered for a win bet at 8 to 5 odds or higher.
Exactas:
Box Impulse Buy (9) and Echo Sound (1).
Impulse Buy (9) and Echo Sound (1) over Impulse Buy (9), Echo Sound (1) and Praying (5).
Trifecta: Impulse Buy (9) and Echo Sound (1) over Impulse Buy (9), Echo Sound (1) over Praying (5).
Doubles:
Race 10: Impulse Buy (9) and Echo Sound (1)
Race 11: He’s Not Joking
Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 30 | Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Two Year Olds
Analysis and top contenders:
Three horses in the field have won stakes races, those being He’s Not Joking (1), Jonathan’s Way (2) and Tiztastic (3). Of the trio, He’s Not Joking (1) is the only one of the three entering the race following a win in his most recent race. That win came in the Grey Stakes at Woodbine in Canada in which He’s Not Joking earned a 95 Equibase Speed Figure which was not only the best of his career but also came in his first race around two turns. Although the Grey Stakes was run on all-weather, I have no doubt the colt can run as well on dirt, as he’s a son of Practical Joke, who has produced two colts which ran well in graded stakes on dirt on the Road to the Kentucky Derby - 2023 Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move and 2024 Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product. In the Grey, He’s Not Joking responded readily when asked by his jockey after a half mile had been run, moving up quickly from sixth to third, before taking the lead and drawing off to win by four lengths at the end. Getting the ground saving rail, He’s Not Joking has the benefit off a strong early pace to close into because Clock Tower (6) has led through the opening six furlongs in all three of his route races and also because First Resort (8) also has a “need the lead” style. Additionally, Redacted (10) stretches out from seven furlongs from the extreme outside post and so will be forced to use some early speed to get good position before the first turn. Last, but not least, trainer Josie Carroll doesn’t ship out of Woodbine very often to run her horses on conventional dirt, but a Race Lens query reveals her starters have won four of 16 races on conventional dirt over the last few years. As such, He’s Not Joking may be tough to beat with improvement that should occur in his second consecutive race around two turns.
Jonathan’s Way (2) was very impressive winning the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs in September and he did so with a field high 100 Equibase Speed figure. That race was run at a mile around one turn, so he was trying two turns for the first time in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at the start of this month. In that race, Jonathan’s Way started fifth and never made any headway, ending up seventh at the end, earning a 94 figure. Since then, he has put in a spectacular five-furlong workout over the track, in 58.8 seconds, the best of 76 on the day at the distance. This certainly tells us he’s fit, but there’s still no way to say for sure he will run as well at this two-turn trip as he did around one turn. If Jonathan’s Way repeats his last effort and He’s Not Joking repeats his most recent effort, then He’s Not Joking likely wins. On the other hand, if his Iroquois effort is repeated, Jonathan’s Way might win, but only if He’s Not Joking doesn’t improve off the experience of his first race at the distance.
Then there’s a pair of interesting runners, both with less probability to win than either He’s Not Joking or Jonathan’s Way. The first of the pair is Sonic Skidaddle (7), who didn’t run much in his debut at Churchill Downs in a sprint two months ago when finishing seventh but who then was an entirely different horse in his second career start on November 1. In that race at seven furlongs, Sonic Skidaddle rallied from 10th after a half mile and was six paths wide on the far turn but still swooped by the field to win by almost five lengths, earning an 85 figure. Stretching out to two turns should not pose a problem as a Race Lens query reveals both foals of his dam are dirt route winners. Trainer Brendan Walsh is excellent at knowing when his last out maiden winners are ready for the big leagues, having won the Breeders’ Futurity in October with East Avenue at this distance following a win in a dirt sprint. Notably, jockey Machado rode East Avenue for the maiden win before Gaffalione got on for the stakes win. The pattern is similar for Sonic Skidaddle, who had Machado aboard for the maiden win and now gets Gaffalione.
The other interesting horse is Tiztastic (3), who won the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at one mile on grass around two turns in September, with a 90 figure, before earning an 88 figure when second to five length winner Sovereignty in the Street Sense Stakes at this distance on October 27. He’s certainly got talent, and with just slight improvement off his last two efforts could have a say in the outcome.
Bets:
Win: He’s Not Joking (1) can be considered for a win bet at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box He’s Not Joking (1) and Jonathan’s Way (2) over He’s Not Joking (1), Jonathan’s Way (2), Tiztastic (3) and Sonic Skidaddle (7).