Race 9 at Santa Anita | Saturday November 4 | Post Time 6:40 PM Eastern

Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade 1 | Purse $6 Million | One Mile and One Quarter | Three Year Olds and Upward

 

Early pace scenario: Saudi Crown (6) has led from the start through the first six furlongs in all three of his route races and it is very likely jockey Florent Geroux will use his position in the gate from the six post to try to get the lead and get the colt into a steady stride. This is how he won the Pennsylvania Derby, however by a diminishing margin by a half-length after leading by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to go. Arabian Knight (12), who has also led from the start through the first six furlongs in his last three races, all routes, will have to use energy to get the lead he likes from the 12 post. If Saudi Crown has the lead and the inside position, this will force jockey Flavien Prat and Arabian Knight to go even faster to get the lead, or it will put them in second in the early stages, a position the colt has never found himself in. Missed the Cut (4) has some tactical speed and is drawn inside Saudi Crown in the gate, as is White Abarrio (3), and that could add more pace pressure to the early leader. Proxy (13) draws the extreme outside and his best efforts have come when fifth or closer after a half-mile, so he too may need to use some of his energy to get that kind of position. At the least, with Saudi Crown and Arabian Knight both being need-the-lead types, we can expect the early fractions to be faster than average and if both contest for the front from the start, the stalkers and closers may have an edge in the late stages. 

Analysis and main win contenders:

Ushba Tesoro (8) has won 10 of his 30 races but more importantly seven of his last 11. Those seven wins have come in succession, starting a little over a year ago. The win streak coincided with Ushba Tesoro moving to dirt after running his first 22 races on grass. He won the Yokohama Stakes in April of 2022 the first time he ever ran on dirt, winning by four lengths in a 14 horse field, then finished third last September following nearly five months off. Since then all he has done is win, doing so against an average field size of 13 and always in impressive fashion. Ushba Tesoro earned his biggest win this past March in the Dubai World Cup, in which he unleashed a powerful run during the last quarter mile to win by nearly three lengths. That effort earned a career-best, and field high, 128 Equibase Speed Figure. He had earned a 124 figure last December, also at the distance of the Classic and in a group 1 race worth more than $1 million. With jockey Yuga Kawada aboard for his last two wins and riding again, with the horse having a perfect five-for-five record on fast dirt tracks and a perfect six-for-six record on dirt at one mile and one-quarter and the similar distance of one mile and five-sixteenths, and making his second start following six months off so certainly ready to run another “A” race, Ushba Tesoro may be the one to beat in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

White Abarrio (3) was a top three year old in 2022, winning the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby in succession, but he was very wide throughout in the Kentucky Derby and finished 16^th. Following that, White Abarrio did not appear to be the same horse, as he lost five in a row before victory this past March. Given three months off after that and moving to the barn of Richard Dutrow, White Abarrio seems to have recovered his spark. He improved off a third place finish in the one-turn Metropolitan Handicap in June with a 110 figure to win the Whitney Stakes in August with a career-best 121 figure. North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode White Abarrio in the Whitney and rides again so that is a positive sign. Noting White Abarrio has had some foot issues in the past, there were concerns about not having raced since August and some missed workouts.  However, with a sensational five furlong drill on October 27 at Santa Anita (59.8, third best of 39 on the day), it appears White Abarrio is ready to run as well or better than he did in his most recent race.  Considering his 121 figure is the second best in the field and came in his last start, this four year old certainly must be respected as a strong contender.

Zandon (2) has been the runner-up twice as many times in his career as he’s won, as he has finished second six times compared to three wins. However, there are a couple of legitimate reasons for some of his runner-up efforts, particularly this year. He returned from five months off in May and in the one-turn mile Westchester Stakes finished second to Repo Rocks, who at the time had won three of his last four races and was not returning from a layoff like Zandon was. Next, Zandon ran into a monster in Cody’s Wish, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Stakes winner, also in a one-turn mile race. Following that and stretching out to two turns for the Whitney, Zandon ran second behind White Abarrio but improved to a then career-best 112 figure. In his most recent race on October 1, Zandon won the Woodward Stakes in impressive fashion with a new career-best 114 figure. Another four year old like White Abarrio, Zandon still may have some maturing to do and it would not take that much improvement to run as fast, or as well as, the top two contenders in this year’s Classic field.

Honorable mention goes to Derma Sotogake (5), not just because of how impressively he won the U.A.E. Derby in March (with a 116 figure) at the similar distance of one mile and three-sixteenth, but because he has won on the lead and from off the pace. Granted, Derma Sotogake ran poorly in his only previous start in the U.S., finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby, but then again considering he finished sixth of 18 perhaps that wasn’t so bad at all. Looking at his U.A.E. Derby win, Derma Sotogake led from start to finish and was widening in the stretch in a 13 horse field. Considering how Japanese based horses have fared against some of the best horses in the world in Europe and Dubai this year, we cannot entirely rule out this three year old amongst this talented field.

Bets:

Win: Ushba Tesoro (8) to at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

I will also consider White Abarrio (3) and Zandon (2) for win bets at 4 to 1 or above. Considering Zandon opens at 12 to 1, he’s the likely second win bet in this race. That being said, Derma Sotogake (5) starts at 20 to 1 odds and I would not hesitate to be him at 8 to 1 or more, particularly as I would not want to be kicking myself late if he should pull off the big upset.

Exactas:

Box Zandon (2), White Abarrio (3), Ushba Tesoro (8)

Box Zandon (2), White Abarrio (3), Derma Sotogake (5), Ushba Tesoro (8)

Trifecta:

Zandon (2), White Abarrio (3), Ushba Tesoro (8) over ALL over Zandon (2), White Abarrio (3), Ushba Tesoro (8)

Note: By playing both the exacta and trifecta, we are trying to maximize our return because if any two of the three finish 1^st and 2^nd OR 1^st and 3^rd we win one of the bets. If all three finish in the top three, we win both bets.