Race 8 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 9 | Post Time 4:25 PM Eastern

Dream Supreme Stakes | Purse $300,000 | Six Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

Upper Case (2) is extremely consistent, with nine first or second place finished in 13 races. He’s even more consistent this year in dirt sprints, having won or placed in four in a row. Upper Case enters the race off a runner-up effort in a stakes quality allowance race last month at Keeneland, where he led from the start and into deep stretch before being passed late by Mystic Pleasure (5). Still, Upper Case was six clear of the third horse. That race was run at six and one-half furlongs, soi having led with a half-furlong to run, Upper Case can turn the tables on Mystic Pleasure at this six-furlong trip.

Additionally, Upper Case may be better when coming from off the pace. In her most recent six-furlong effort on August 4, Upper Case raced in third for the first quarter mile then moved up to second after a half mile before showing a huge burst of speed to be in front by three lengths in the stretch and coasting home easily. In this field, Girls Weekend (1) will be sent for the lead from the rail and particularly as jockey Saez is very aggressive with this type. However, Miss Arlington (9) earned here last two wins leading from the start, AND, Accomplished Girl (6) earned ALL FOUR of her wins in wire-to-wire fashion. With at least two of the three speedballs setting a lively tempo, Upper Case should be in the same spot she was when winning at the distance in July, and can post the slight upset, or at the minimum be part of the exacta for the 10^th time in her 14^th career start.

Mystic Pleasure (5), like Upper Case, ran the best race of her career last month, with both earning 114 Equibase Speed Figures which are tops in the field. Like Upper Case, Mystic Pleasure has the right style to take advantage of a fast and contested early pace scenario, as she stalked in second in the early stages when winning last month, and as she rallied from fifth to win her last sprint before that, in July. Geroux was aboard for that win and gets back on board after two races with other jockeys, so we can expect a repeat of the race this summer, which is good enough to win here as well.

If there weren’t three “need the lead” types in the field, I might prefer Spirit Wind (3) over the other two contenders. She’s won seven of 14 races, including four of her last five races at this six-furlong trip. She finished second in her most recent try, on October 5, in the higher-level Grade 2 TCA Stakes at Keeneland. Although she’s dropping in class, and although she ran well, Spirit Wind ran more slowly than Upper Case and Mystic Pleasure, as she only earned a 92 Equibase Speed Figure. She did earn a career-best 108 figure in May, at this distance, winning a stakes race in Texas, which also happens to be the only time she’s raced as far back as third after a quarter mile, before rallying, which she’d need to do there. So, on one hand she’s won half of her races and faced tougher last out while on the other hand her best race yielded a 108 figure nowhere near fast enough to beat either Upper Case or Mystic Pleasure if they repeat their most recent effort. As such, if Spirit Wind is less than 5 to 2 at post time, she may be a much poorer bet to win than either of the other two contenders.

Win Bets:

We should consider win bets on Upper Case (2) and Mystic Pleasure (5) at 5 to 2 or more, perhaps as low as 2 to 1.

Exactas:

Box Upper Case (2) and Mystic Pleasure (5)

Box Upper Case (2), Mystic Pleasure (5) and Spirit Wind (3)