Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday October 12 | Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes presented by Dixiana – Grade 1 | Purse $750,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Fillies, Three Years Old

Analysis and top contenders:

Waves of Mischief (4) has more than just a legitimate shot to win this year’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes. She won in her career debut in April on the Keeneland turf, then was stepped up in class in the Hilltop Stakes and finished third. An irrelevant race on all-weather followed that but when put back on grass for the Pucker Up Stakes on August 4, Waves of Mischief showed a ton of ability when reeling in the leader after slow fractions to get up by a head on the wire. The leader at the time was Pin Up Betty (1), who won the Regret Stakes at this distance two months earlier. Waves of Mischief and Pin Up Betty each earned 112 Equibase speed figures in the Pucker Up, which are by far the highest winning figures earned by any horse in this field. After the Pucker Up, Waves of Mischief rallied nicely in the last eighth of a mile to go from fifth, then to second, in the $1.5 million Dueling Grounds Oaks. In every sense, Waves of Mischief has no knocks at all and could be the one to beat even in this quality field.

Pin Up Betty (1) has finished first or second in five of seven races this year, all on turf. Her best effort came at the distance of this race when beaten a head on the wire by Waves of Mischief in the Pucker Up Stakes. In that race, Pin Up Betty took the lead after a half mile had been run and opened a two-length lead with an eighth of a mile to run. That isn’t her preferred running style, and the jockey change to Luis Saez could be key to her running a race like the one put forth when winning the Regret Stakes in June. In that race, Saez had Pin Up Betty settled back in last in the field of seven, but when asked to run she quickly passed the field to be in front with an eighth of a mile to run. Most recently, in the Dueling Grounds Oaks, Pin Up Betty moved up quickly from fifth to third but then had no further kick. Cutting back from a mile and five-sixteenths to the distance of the Regret and with Saez getting back on, it is certainly possible Pin Up Betty will run one of the best races of her career by repeating the 112-speed figure she earned in the Pucker Up.

She Feels Pretty (3) was the odds-on favorite in the Lake Placid Stakes in August at Saratoga and ran good enough to win but came up a neck short on the finish line. She engaged with Grayosh (9) at the top of the stretch and these two very talented fillies fought head and head all the way to the wire, with both fillies earning 104 figures. She Feels Pretty adds blinkers for this race which may help her dig in if battling again. Additionally, she draws an inside post compared to Grayosh, the opposite of their post positions in the Lake Placid, where Grayosh had a more inside position. Grayosh has improved her figures in her last three races, from 87, to 91, to 104. She Feels Pretty earned a career-best 108 figure when beaten three-quarters of a length in the Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes prior to the Lake Placid. As such, it would be no surprise if both fillies were in the thick of the action at the end.

Note that there is not a horse that can win the race, but I feel the other six are a cut below the four above in terms of their probability to succeed.

Win Bets: All four contenders above can win, and all four can be considered for win bets, with emphasis on two of the four at the highest odds to achieve the best return for the risk, at or above these minimum odds:

Waves of Mischief (4) - 7 to 2 (3 ½ to 1) minimum odds for making a win bet

Pin Up Betty (1) – 9 to 2 (4 ½ to 1) minimum odds for making a win bet

She Feels Pretty (3) – 7 to 2 (3 ½ to 1) minimum odds for making a win bet

Grayosh (9) – 9 to 2 (4 ½ to 1) minimum odds for making a win bet

Exacta: Box Waves of Mischief (4), Pin Up Betty (1), She Feels Pretty (3) and Grayosh (9).