Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 14 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented by Dixiana – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

 

Analysis and Top contenders:

 

A VERY strong field of three year old filly turf stars lines up for this pretty prestigious race, one of the last grade 1 stakes restricted to three year olds on the year. As is the case with many a top turf race in North America, European horses have an edge, particularly three year olds at this time of year and they have faced tougher and are often farther along physically and mentally.

With that in mind Elusive Princess (2) gets top billing, although she has already made her U.S. debut. That came in August in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational where she rallied in visually impressive fashion from sixth with a quarter mile to go, nearly 12 paths wide on the turn, to get to the front in the stretch, before widening her lead. The effort earned a strong 106 Equibase Figure, the BEST among any North American effort any of the rest have put in. She comes back from a similar two month layoff, with Prat riding back and those are good signs for a repeat. Elusive Princess’ European form was strong as well as she was second in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary Stakes in May, at 10 furlongs, earning a 117 figure. The Saratoga Oaks was run at one mile and three-sixteenths so this mile and one-eighth trip is perfect for another big effort, particularly as none of the other four European horses, have run this far.

Mawj (4) has won five of eight races, including the Group 1 1000 Guineas Stakes when last seen in May. She’s never run farther than a mile but her breeding suggests this nine furlong trip is well within her reach. Top European jockey Oisin Murphy comes across the pond to ride and was up for the first time when Mawj won the 1000 Guineas and that effort earned a 121 figure which, if repeated, is certainly good enough to win here. Even though she opens at 2 to 1 compared to 3 to 1 for Elusive Princess, those odds likely being a bit low for a win bet, Mawj must be used as a win contender on any exacta or trifecta tickets played involving this race.

Sounds of Heaven (7) rounds out the trio of top contenders. She has only run five times and has won twice, but her best effort came when third in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, where she was beaten a neck for second and a length for the win and earned a 116 Equibase figure. She’s a daughter of Kingman which means this nine furlong trip she’s running for the first time is no problem at all. Like Mawj, Sounds of Heaven brings her European based jockey, Shane Foley, along to ride and he was aboard for one of her two wins. Just like the most recent races in Europe run by Elusive Princess (the Group 1 Prix de Diane or French Oaks) and my Mawj (the Group 1 1000 Guineas), Sounds of Heaven faced much tougher (than the North American horses have faced) when running in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at the end of July and in spite of finishing sixth still earned a 109 speed figure better than any of the U.S. runners have earned.

For second position on some exacta tickets, and for third on trifecta tickets, we can include a few other, some which will offer double digit odds. That group consists of Lindy (6), Elounda Queen (8), Papilio (12) and Freydis the Red (13).

Bets:

Win: Elusive Princess (2) can and should be considered for a win bet at 8 to 5 or higher.

Mawj (4) can be considered for a win bet at 9 to 5 or higher.

Sounds of Heaven (7) can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Elusive Princess (2) and Mawj (4)

Box Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7)

Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7) over Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4), Sounds of Heaven (7), Lindy (6), Elounda Queen (8), Papilio (12) and Freydis the Red (13).

Trifecta:

Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7) over Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4), Sounds of Heaven (7), Lindy (6), Elounda Queen (8), Papilio (12) and Freydis the Red (13) over Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7)