Race 7 at Keeneland | Saturday October 19 | Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern

Perryville Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | Seven Furlongs | Three Year Olds

Analysis and top contenders:

Henro (1) has won four of nine including the identical Harrods Creek Stakes at Churchill Downs four weeks ago, a race with a $295,000 purse compared to the $300,000 purse for this race, the Grade 3 ranking notwithstanding. He won that race rallying from last of six and was four wide on the turn when fifth before making up a couple of lengths to be fourth but within a length of three other horses before passing them and drawing off. Two races before that, Henro won the Iowa Derby around two turns, proving his versatility. Jockey Rafael Bejarano has been aboard for his last six races including three wins and two runner-up efforts, one from which he was disqualified and placed fifth of interference. The 101 Equibase Speed Figure earned in the Harrod’s Creek is a few points shy of the 107, 108 and 105 figures starting favorite Book’em Dano (5) has earned in his three most recent races, but not so far that Henro should open at 12 to 1 compared to 2 to 1 for Book’em Dano, particularly as Henro earned a 103 figure a few races back at the similar distance of six and one-half furlongs. As such, Henro gets slight preference as the horse to look to first when considering wagers involving this race.

Who Day (4) is another who, by virtue of how heavily bet Book’em Dano may be, could be worth considering for a bet to win. He has won five of nine and has finished second in two other races, most noticeably the spring equivalent of this race, the Lafayette Stakes, where Who Day closed fast from fifth to get second. Three races later, although only managing third in the Ellis Park Derby, Who Dey earned a career-best 103 figure, which matches up with Henro’s best effort. Following that two-turn race, Who Day cut back to six and one-half furlongs and won an allowance race so is in excellent form. Not only did Who Day run well in the similar Lafayette Stakes this spring, but he’s a full brother to Everett’s Song, who won the 2021 Harrods Creek Stakes, the same race Henro won last month.

Knightsbridge (3) is undefeated in two starts, one last November at this distance with a 104 Equibase Speed Figure which is very strong for a two-year-old, and the other in March. He won his debut by 10 lengths and his only other start by nine lengths and although he was off for nearly five months before the second win and returns from seven months off today, considering how fast he has run when firing fresh, he must be considered a contender, particularly as he’s a half-brother to Speaker’s Corner, who won the 2022 Grade 1 Carter Stakes and who banked nearly $800,000. If there is a knock, it is that he opens at 3 to 1 and may go to post at odds lower than that.

Book‘em Dano (5) opens as the 2 to 1 favorite as he’s dropping off a third place effort in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes and because he won the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes in June. In between those two races at this seven-furlong trip, Book’em Dano won the Jersey Short Stakes at six furlongs. Those three efforts earned 107, 108 and 105 Equibase Speed Figures and if no other horse improves off their best effort and he repeats any of those three efforts, he wins. On the other hand, three-year-olds in the fall as still maturing physically and mentally so he’s not a standout, although with six wins in nine races and never worse than third he is a strong contender.

Win Bets:

Given the value offered based on the morning line odds, Henro (1) and Who Dey (4) can both be bet to win 4 to 1 or higher odds. The other two, Knightsbridge (3) and Book’em Dano (5) don’t offer enough return for the risk, short term or long term, for win bets.

Exactas: Even though Knightsbridge and Book’em Dano may not offer value for win bets, we can make some money if they win in the exactas below, avoiding the lowest paying exactas combining the two favorites:

Henro (1) and Who Dey (4) over Henro (1), Who Dey (4), Knightsbridge (3) and Book’em Dano (5)

Henro (1), Who Dey (4), Knightsbridge (3) and Book’em Dano (5) over Henro (1) and Who Dey (4)