Race 6 at Keeneland | Saturday October 21 | Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern

Perryville Stakes | Purse $250,000 | Seven Furlongs | Three Year Olds

 

Analysis and Top contenders:

 

This race may only have six horses but that doesn’t make it any less interesting to watch, and particularly to wager on. One of the first things to do when handicapping any race is look at the favorite and determine whether that horse falls into one of three categories; Legitimate, Vulnerable, or False. A legitimate favorite is the class of the race, in top form, and often has the top speed figures. A vulnerable favorite has races which, if repeated, could be good enough to win, but there’s no guarantee one of those big races is forthcoming in this situation. A false favorite is a horse which may look good on paper but there are question marks such as poor recent form or trying a distance or surface for the first time.

In this race the betting favorite will likely be Verifying (1), who starts at even money. The first thing noted is his overall record, with is 3-4-0 in 10 races. That’s not really the kind of record you want to see in a prohibitive betting choice, particularly because in the four runner-up efforts he did not really threaten to win. Additionally, except for his first two races, in August and October of last year, and his most recent race on August 26, Verifying has only run in two-turn races. He did win his debut at six furlongs and he did finish second in a one-turn mile race, as well as in his most recent race, the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkins Memorial Stakes, but on the other hand although rallying for second in that last race, at today’s distance, Verifying earned a 98 Equibase Speed Figure. That figure is not dominant by any means compared to most of the other entrants in this race. Put another way, if Verifying repeats that effort, or his Indiana Derby winning effort prior to that (with a 99 figure) he is no faster than a few others in here if they run their best races, and that makes him tough to bet to win at such low odds. Nevertheless, Verifying can and should still be used on exacta bets.

Dr. Venkman (5) not only ran faster than Verifying in his most recent race, it was at today’s distance of seven furlongs so the two horse’s most recent efforts can be compared. Now a perfect two-for-two, Dr. Venkman has dominated by five lengths in fields of 10 and 9, respectively, while Verifying finished second and first in seven horse fields then second most recently in a six horse field. In both his races, Dr. Venkman showed a lot of maturity for a young horse, relaxing in fourth or third for the first half-mile before making a quick and wide move to gain the lead at the top of the stretch, before drawing off. To have earned a 106 Equibase figure in only the second start of his career, in a field of three year olds and older, and now facing only three year olds while on a pattern for another improvement in form and speed, Dr. Venkman, who opens at 7 to 2 odds, is the one to beat, and to bet.

Loyal Company (6) is unlikely to go to post near his 12 to 1 starting odds, given he has never been higher than 9 to 2 in six races, but he will still go to post at odds higher than they should be, which are about 3 to 1. This is because every race he has run on dirt at six and one-half to seven furlongs has been a top effort. He’s won two of those, including at Keeneland in April, and although third in the Ellis Park Derby one race before last, on August 13, Loyal Company was beaten just a head for second and three-quarters of a length for the win. That effort earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure higher than the 102 figures Verifying earned winning in January or when beaten a neck in the Blue Gras Stakes in April. Loyal Company is owned by Godolphin, who has had a big meet so far, and he is trained by Brendan Walsh, who as of the start of the week had eight first or second place finishes from 16 starts. With a good outside post and a stalking style, and as a half-brother to 2022 Commonwealth Stakes (at this distance at Keeneland) winner, Loyal Company offers sufficient value for the risk and has to be considered a contender for all the marbles.

Bets:

Win: Dr. Venkman (5) has about a 40% probability to win this race and therefore can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.

Loyal Company (6) should be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 odds or more.

Exactas:

Dr. Venkman (5) over Verifying (1) and Loyal Company (6)

Box Dr. Venkman (5), Verifying (1) and Loyal Company (6)