Buy TicketsRace 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 26 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern
Bryan Station Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds
Analysis and top contenders:
Neat (1) is a multiple graded stakes winner, on turf, one of two in the race. The other is Trikari (11). Neat has won six of nine races on turf and has earned more than $900,000. Trikari has won three of seven races on turf and more than $1.3 million. Neat and Trikari faced each other just one time previously, in the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes on Kentucky Derby day, where Neat was sent to post at 8 to 1 and Trikari was disregarded by bettors at 47 to 1. Trikari won the American Turf Stakes, with Neat finishing up the track in seventh. Trikari and Neat have both won twice since, with Neat victorious in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes in August, and with Trikari winning the Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes the same month.
The reasons for all the comparisons above are to illustrate both horses are very good, yet Trikari opens as the 2 to 1 favorite while Neat opens at 6 to 1 odds that are well out of line with his equal probability (to Trikari) of winning this race. Both horses have very good late kicks, but in the Hall of Fame Stakes, Neat ran the last quarter mile in a very swift 22 seconds flat. Trikari ran the last quarter mile in 22.7 seconds when winning the Secretariat Stakes. Considering Neat gets the ground saving rail and that Junior Alvarado, who was aboard for the Hall of Fame win, rides again, and Trikari gets a much more outside post, I have to give Neat the edge, particularly as Neat won the Transylvania Stakes on the Keeneland turf in April whereas Trikari finished 12th in his only start here, although it must be noted that was his career debut last October.
In addition to Neat and Trikari, there are others whose odds will be high because the odds on Trikari are low. One of those is Lagynos (7), who led in the stretch in the Hall of Fame Stakes and was only a neck behind Neat at the finish. He was decently regarded at 8 to 1 that day and ran the last quarter mile in 22.4 seconds. Although he’s only won two of 11 races, and only one of seven on turf, Lagynos has been in the money in four of his last six, all stakes, and could be part of the exacta or trifecta again, at double digit odds.
Another horse with a chance, at least to hit the board, is Mansa Musa (8), who has a 2-4-2 record in 10 races, all on turf. He has never run further than six and one-half furlongs so makes his first start in a two-turn race, and Junior Alvarado has been aboard for all six races (including one win) since he imported from Europe, but opts for Neat for this race. Nevertheless, Mansa Musa may have an impact, as he drops in class off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes and as he is a son of Ten Sovereigns, a top European sire who has only had a few horses run in North America. One of those is exceptional two-year-old turf star Zulu Kingdom, who won the Pilgrim Stakes recently in New York and who is going to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf next week. Trainer Bill Mott knows when to stretch a horse out from a sprint to a route on turf, having campaigned multiple graded stakes winner Casa Creed, who, with Luis Saez aboard (the same as Mansa Musa) won the Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap at a mile on grass. As such, Mansa Musa is a horse we should take a hard look at when considering our wagers in this race.
Brilliant Berti (6) won the $1.5 million Gun Runner Stakes last month at this distance, at Kentucky Downs. He has now won four of six races, all on turf, including two stakes. In his only graded stakes try, Brilliant Berti finished second, two lengths behind Trikari in the Secretariat Stakes, so he has a shot to be part of the exacta or trifecta as well.
You’ll also notice Herchee (3), My Boy Prince (4) and Evade (9) on some exacta tickets below. Herchee finished second to Brillian Bertie recently, while My Boy Prince has been in the money in nine of 12 races. Evade finished fourth in the Franklin-Simpson in his North American debut and can improve.
Win Bets:
Our first and most important win bet can be on Neat (1) at 7 to 2 or more.
After that, we can consider smaller win bets (than on Neat) on Lagynos (7) and on Mansa Musa (8) at 6 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Neat (1) over all.
Neat (1) over Herchee (3), My Boy Prince (4), Brilliant Bertie (6), Lagynos (7), Mansa Musa (8), Evade (9) and Trikari (11)
Also, considering Lagynos (7) opens at 15 to 1, at the $1 minimum these exactas could be profitable as well:
Lagynos (7) over Neat (1), Herchee (3), My Boy Prince (4), Brilliant Bertie (6), Mansa Musa (8), Evade (9) and Trikari (11)
and (the opposite of the above): Neat (1), Herchee (3), My Boy Prince (4), Brilliant Bertie (6), Mansa Musa (8), Evade (9) and Trikari (11) over Lagynos (7)