Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 28 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Hagyard Fayette Stakes | Purse $350,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward

 

Pace analysis and Top contender analysis:

With a full field of 12, plus two more who can run if any in the main body of the race withdraw, this year’s Hagyard Fayette Stakes is one of the best renewals yet and a great way to end the fall Keeneland meeting. 

Early pace analysis: The first thing to note is there are many horses in the field who like to run in the top few positions early, and/or run their best races ONLY when in front in the early stages. Although at this stakes level horses can run hard early and still finish fast and be in contention late, there are just too many “early/presser” types in my opinion to allow that to happen. Specifically, Giant Game (4) earned his last two wins, in May and July, leading from start to finish, and Speed Bias (6) lost by a nose in May and by a neck in August when leading from the start, as well as earned his last win (in January) leading from start to finish. Then there’s Best Actor (12), whose outside post in the gate dictates he will have to be asked for speed from the start, considering he has never been more than one length behind the leader after a half-mile in any of his last five races, including two wins. There are a few more with the same running style, so horses proven to be able to relax, or whose position in the gate will allow them to save ground and not expend too much early energy, are the main contenders.

Main contender analysis:

That group of win contenders is led by Film Star (1), who has had a phenomenal 2023 campaign by winning or placing in nine of 10 races. Following the claim for $75,000 in February by Linda Rice, Film Star won at Keeneland in April then shipped to the trainer’s home base in New York. His last four races have all been at this mile and one-eighth trip, first with a neck loss then two wins followed by his best effort of the year in the Grade 2 Woodward Stakes where he led in the stretch after stalking the pacesetter but was passed by top handicap division horse Zandon (third in last year’s Derby), with Film Star holding second gamely by a head. Jose Ortiz has been aboard for five of the horse’s first or second place efforts this year and rides again and we should not expect anything less than a 100% effort from Film Star once more.

Law Professor (8) was a neck behind Film Star in the Woodward Stakes four weeks ago, pretty much running third from start to finish. Considering he had been away from the races for four and one-half months, that was a darn good effort. This past January, Law Professor won the Queens County Stakes at this nine furlong distance, and he also won the Excelsior Stakes in April at the trip, one where he has now finished first or second in four of six tries. Law Professor is another who can take up a mid-pack position and let the speedballs wear themselves out before launching a bid, possibly earning his seventh career win in his 19^th start and going over the $1 million mark in career earnings.

Trademark (10) is yet another in strong recent form, winning or placing in his last three races, including the identical Lukas Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs four weeks ago. He stalked the leaders in third for most of the race then took over to draw off by a length and one-half, before being beaten right near the wire by a head. He won the Commonwealth Stakes last year with jockey Martin Garcia aboard, who rides today, and Trademark won at this nine furlong trip at Keeneland right before that. As such, Trademark is another horse with a strong chance to be first or second in this race.

The quartet of contenders for top honors is completed by Dash Attack (11), who has won five of 13 career races on dirt. His absolute best effort came last month at Churchill Downs at the slightly shorter distance of one mile and one-sixteenth, where he led from start to finish to earn a field high 112 Equibase Speed Figure, compared to 110 for Film Star’s best recent effort, 108 for Law Professor and 105 for Trademark. Dash Attack may not need the lead to win either, as he rallied from fifth to win at stakes last year and from second to win in June. Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez takes the mount and that certainly doesn’t hurt the chances of Dash Attack winning as easily as he did four weeks ago.

Bets:

Win:
In a race like this with a full field and no heavy favorite, there is an opportunity to bet at least two of the win contenders provided the return is worth the risk, as follows:

Film Star (1) and Law Professor (8) can be considered for win bets at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Trademark (10) and Dash Attack (11) can be considered for win bets at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Exacta:

Box Film Star (1), Law Professor (8), Trademark (10) and Dash Attack (11).

Trifecta:

Film Star (1), Law Professor (8), Trademark (10) and Dash Attack (11) over ALL over Film Star (1), Law Professor (8), Trademark (10) and Dash Attack (11).

Note: By playing both the exacta and trifecta, we are trying to maximize our return because if any two of the three finish 1^st and 2^nd OR 1^st and 3^rd we win one of the bets. If all three finish in the top three, we win both bets.