Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 5 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Two Year Olds

Analysis and top contenders:

Optical (3) ran in a dirt route (a mile or more) race for the first time in his most recent race on September 18 and whatever got into him that day, if repeated, could get him the upset win in this year’s Breeders’ Futurity. Easily making the lead from the start, Optical didn’t run all that slowly but was in front by one and one-half, then two-lengths, through the opening half mile and three-quarter mile points of call, before opening up to win by 14 lengths. The 92 Equibase Speed figure helps us compare that effort to the other up-and-coming two-year-olds in the race and it is the BEST (Fastest) last race figure in the field, even faster (albeit by one point) over the 91 figure Ferocious earned when second in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga in early September. Trainer Keith Desormeaux is no stranger to winning big races with longshots, having won the 2023 Rebel Stakes at 23 to 1 and the 2022 LeComte Stakes at 28 to 1, both with jockey James Graham aboard, who rode Optical last time out and who rides back again. As far as pedigree goes, Optical is by City of Light, who is the sire of one of the top two-year-olds or last year and three year olds of 2024 in Fierceness. With a good inside post to take advantage of his early speed, and likely to improve off what is already the fastest last race in the field, Optical gets top billing in this race.

Handsome Pants (4) won around two-turns at first asking, not an easy task, and he did so showing the maturity of a horse which had already run once or more. In that debut effort last month at Churchill Downs, Handsome Pants relaxed while sixth of 11 in the early stages then made a very quick move on the far turn to go from fourth to first, before widening his lead to the wire in a field of 11. The 87 figure was fine for a first-time starter and very likely to be improved upon as well. Trainer Kenny McPeek, who won this year’s Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, won the 2021 Breeders’ Futurity with Rattle N Roll off a maiden win at one mile and one-sixteenth and Handsome Pants is on the same pattern for success.

Ferocious (1) won by almost eight lengths in his debut on August 3 then four weeks later was sent to post as the odds-on favorite in the Hopeful Stakes. He rallied nicely from fourth but was beaten a half-length at the end as he was slightly out finished by Chancer McPatrick, who will be the heavy favorite in the Champagne Stakes to be run in New York today. Ferocious earned a very good 91 figure in the Hopeful, right there with the 92 figure Optical Earned in his most recent start, and except for possibly being the betting favorite in this field and not offering the same return for the risk as either Optical or Handsome Pants, Ferocious certainly has a big shot to succeed and must be used on any other tickets we play in this race, particularly exacta tickets.

Dapper Moon (10) showed a lot of physical and mental ability in his debut on July 20 when, in spite of breaking slowly and eighth of nine after a quarter mile, he rallied very well to finish second. With a clean break next time out on August 31, Dapper Moon was third early and drew off easily to win by five lengths, improving to an 83 figure. Although he draws a post position in the outside of the gate for this race, jockey Ricardo Santana (who has been aboard for both of his races) can maneuver Dapper Moon into a good mid-pack position in the early stages, and if he improves as would be expected in a horse’s third career start, he could be a factor as well.

Win Bets: In races like this where only a small bit of win probability separates the contenders, we can look to see what the public is doing and that will help us decide which horses offer the best return for the risk. We do this by setting “fair odds,” also called “minimum odds” and then betting on one or two of the horses offering the best return, as follows:

Optical (3) at 7 to 2 or more

Handsome Pants (4) at 7 to 2 or more

Ferocious (1) at 7 to 2 or more

Dapper Moon (10) at 9 to 2 or more

Exactas: Box Optical (3), Handsome Pants (4), Ferocious (1) and Dapper Moon (10)