Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 7 | Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern

Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Two Year Olds

 

Analysis and Top contenders:

 

In a fantastic edition of the Breeders’ Futurity, a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in four weeks, nine horses line up and seven either won or finished second in their most recent races. ALL except one are turning two-turns for the first time, adding to the intrigue.

That being said, Brad Cox has what looks to be a pair of top contenders in Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2), both with good inside posts and having run faster than just about every other horse in the field in their most recent races. Cox saddled Essential Quality to win this race in 2020, off a maiden win at six furlongs, and that is exactly the same pattern for Awesome Road entering this race. Flattered when both the runner-up and fourth place finishers improved to win their next starts, Awesome Road is also bred to adore this longer trip, perhaps more than most, as four of the other six foals of his dam are dirt route winners, accounting for 12 wins between them. Not only did Cox get Essential Quality to win this race off just a six furlong maiden win, he also saddled Loggins to be second in the 2022 Breeders’ Futurity, as well as the 2019 and 2021 winners of the female equivalent of this race at Keeneland, the Alcibiades Stakes. With the second highest Equibase Speed Figure (93) to improve upon off the experience of a race, Awesome Road gets slight preference over his stablemate Timberlake.

Timberlake (2) has run three ties. The first effort resulted in a sixth of 10 finish after a slow start, but then when blinkers were added for his second start, the colt romped by nine lengths with a field high tying (with The Wine Steward (1) ) 96 figure. Sent from Kentucky to New York for the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes and sent to post as the 2 to 1 favorite, Timberlake rallied from fourth to make the lead in the stretch before being overtaken and settling for second. Cox now takes blinkers off, likely designed to insure Timberlake can see if another horse is coming up on his inside or outside and dig in late. Also, from the inside, it is possible Timberlake may go for the lead from the start, which is how he earned his win in July. He does have tremendous early speed if needed and could prove tough to catch if he repeats that July 21 race.

The Wine Steward (1) has won all three races he’s run, all at six furlongs or less, but his pedigree suggests he should have no issue with the distance as he’s a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso. Jockey Luis Saez, recently returned from an injury, rode The Wine Steward in his win on July 2 where the colt showed a lot of maturity when relaxing in fourth in the early stages before responding to his jockey’s urging to draw off late. Most recently in the Funny Cide Stakes, restricted to horses bred in New York, The Wine Steward earned a 96 Equibase Speed Figure, as good as the one Timberlake earned in July, and if able to run as well on the stretch out to this distance, this colt has a shot at posting the upset, opening at 6 to 1.

Honorable mention goes to Northern Flame (8) and to Generous Tipper (6), who starts at odds of 20 to 1 and 15 to 1, respectively. Those are WAY TOO HIGH odds to ignore as these two come from the barn of strong trainer Kenny McPeek who won the 2021 Breeders’ Futurity with Rattle N Roll and who saddled Signalman to a second place finish in 2018. Generous Tipper finished fifth in his debut, on turf in July, then when switched to the main track finished second in early August before a rousing seven length win at a mile on August 28, a race in which stablemate Northern Flame was third, before improving to win on September 15. Generous Tipper earned a 90 figure for that win, and Northern Flame improved his speed figure nine points when he won the next month, so if the pattern holds Generous Tipper and Northern Flame can outrun their high odds here to help us with a profitable exacta or trifecta.

As to the likely favorite, perhaps prohibitively so, that is Locked (9), who starts at 7 to 5 odds. He won impressively by seven lengths at a mile at Saratoga last month and is making his third career start so can improve. On the other hand, he was second for the first half-mile of that race from the five post and his draw in the gate today might be disadvantageous as Northern Flame led from start to finish in his most recent race, as Just Steel (7) was on the lead early in his most recent race, as Generous Tipper led from start to finish in his last win and as Awesome Road, Timberlake and The Wine Steward all have some early speed and much better tactical position. As such, I’m not sold on Locked as much of a contender to win as the odds suggest, and will try to beat him.

Bets:

Win: Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2) should be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

The Wine Steward (1) can be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 1 or more, and Northern Flame (8) and Generous Tipper (6) can be considered for win bets at 8 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2)

Box Awesome Road (3), Timberlake (2), Generous Tipper (6) and Northern Flame (8)

Trifecta:

Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2) over ALL over Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2)