Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 14 | Post Time 5:29 PM Eastern

Iroquois Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile | Two Year Olds

Analysis and top contenders:

The Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby kicks off with this race, which earns the top five finishers points that will accrue throughout this year and next year and will help determine the 20 horses which will enter the starting gate on the first Saturday in May of next year. At this time of the year, and at this time in the career of most of these aspiring stars, most have just one or two wins to their credit, and few have run in stakes. This being a one-turn mile, there are not the same concerns there might be in one month when some of these may run in the two-turn Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, or in two months in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

On the logical assumption that most two-year-olds improve from one start to another, those which have run the fastest to date merit top billing. Strummin (6) is one of those, and who may be somewhat ignored by bettors because he’s run six times and because he’s not in one of the big-name barns. Nevertheless, this colt can run, and he has stakes experience as well as has run well at Churchill Downs. He debuted in April and ran second in a very fast race where the winner romped by seven lengths. Two races later although still a maiden, Strummin finished second in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill Downs after rallying from sixth in a field of eight. After another runner-up effort, at Churchill Downs, he was entered in turf and around two-turns and finished eighth in an irrelevant effort. Moved to a mile at Ellis Park last month, Strummin was very impressive as he rallied from 10^th in very mature fashion and inhaled the field to win going away with an 88 Equibase Speed Figure, very similar to the 90-figure earned when second in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes. The difference may have been the jockey change to Christian Torres, who rides the colt back and who also rode Owen Almighty (5) to victory last month. Considering the nature of the mile at Ellis Park is very similar to the one-turn mile at Churchill Downs, and considering there may be up to five horses in this 12-horse field who may vie for the lead from the start and set a faster than average pace, it appears Strummin may have the late kick necessary to win this race.

Johathan’s Way (10) was as impressive winning his debut at Saratoga last month as Strummin was winning his most recent race. Through no fault of his own, Jonathan’s Way was pinched back to last after the start but neither the colt, nor Joel Rosario (who rides back) got panicked in any way. Still sixth after a half-mile had been run, Jonathan’s Way circled the field on the turn to be in front with an eighth of a mile to run then continued to accelerate, winning easily by four and one-half lengths and earning an 89 Equibase Speed Figure. Considering he was sent off as the second choice in the wagering in that race at 2 to 1 even though he was a first-time starter, there were signs of talent prior to the race, and now with the experience of a race under his belt, Jonathan’s Way has a big shot to win this stakes in his second career start.

Aside from those top two contenders, others are worth mentioning. The first is Mesoro (11), who is likely to be ignored by some bettors relative to others in the field particularly as his debut win at the end of July earned him a 76-speed figure. Still, like Jonathan’s Way, Mesoro broke slowly, and was last of 12 early, then rallied to seventh after a half-mile, to fourth with an eighth of a mile to run and passed the remaining three horses with big strides to win. Trainer Dale Romans won this race in 2020 and 2021 with horses off just one race, a win, and Corey Lanerie rode both this colt and Firmus to wins last month but chooses Mesoro to ride. If he’s 10 to 1 or more, I will be betting him so as not to be kicking myself after the race because he could improve his figure by leaps and bounds off the debut and has the same running style as the top two contenders in a race with a lot of “early” speed types.

Magnitude (8) is trained by Asmussen, who won this race last year with a horse off a maiden debut win the same as this colt. Magnitude earned an 88 figure when last seen on July 20 in his second career start and can improve, and although his running line makes it appear he led from start to finish, remember those points of all are at every quarter mile, so watching the video reveals he did not break on top but then made the lead easily and drew off late so he may not be a need the lead type as it appears others are such as First Resort (1), Giocoso (2), Jack’s Time (3) and Authentic Strike (4), all with inside positions in the gate which require them to go fast early and not lose position.  

One more horse with a shot is Sandman (7), who showed a lot of maturity relaxing in fourth for the first quarter mile, then was third after a half-mile before rallying to lead on the turn. He relaxed nicely in the early stages and responded nicely when asked and his 91 figure is right there with the other main contenders so if he improves in his third career start, he may have a say in the outcome.

Win Bets: We should strongly consider Strummin (6) and Jonathan’s Way (10) at 5 to 2 or more.

If Mesoro (11), Magnitude (8) or Sandman (7) are 10 to 1 or higher near post time, I might consider a small win bet on any or all.

Exactas: I feel pretty confident that either Strummin (6) and Jonathan’s Way (10) will win, and there are a lot of possibilities for second, so the exacta will be Strummin (6) and Jonathan’s Way (10) over all.