Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 16 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern

Locust Grove Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward

 

Analysis and Top contenders:

Le Da Vida (3) is tied with the most wins of any horse in the field with eight, in 22 races. Most importantly, her last three efforts, all since coming back from a two month layoff in May, have been the best of her career. She missed by a length in the Du Pont Stakes on Preakness weekend with a 104 Equibase Speed Figure before improving to a very strong 111 figure effort winning the $250,000 Lady Jacqueline Stakes in June, at the slightly longer distance of nine furlongs. Four weeks later in the Molly Pitcher Stakes she began seventh and was making up a ton of ground when the wire came, beaten a half-length with a 101 figure after bobbling at the start, which cost her early position. Jockey Cheminaud has been aboard for all nine of her U.S. races since importing from Chile, including all three wins, and rides Le Da Vida again in this race. She won her ONLY start at Churchill Downs, last September, and enters the race in peak for, with her Lady Jacqueline effort good enough to win if repeated as it is even better than the effort likely favorite Pauline’s Pearl (2) put forth winning the Grade 2 Fleur Di Lis Stakes here at Churchill Downs in July with a 103 figure.

Pauline’s Pearl (2) is next most probable to succeed but will very likely go to post at much lower odds than Le Da Vida, having won the higher level Fleur Di Lis over the track when last seen, as well as the higher level Grade 1  La Troienne Stakes in 2022. She was badly beaten when sixth in this year’s La Troienne, having finished seven of eight prior to that in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile. Having returned to winning form in the Fleur Di Lis, with a career best 103 figure, Pauline’s Pearl could be a factor if Le Da Vida does not run as well as she did in the Lady Jacqueline (111 figure) and more like she did when second in the Molly Pitcher (101 figure) or third in the Du Pont Stakes (104) figure, and that means we must consider Pauline’s Pearl for exacta wagers we make in this race although she is likely a poorer win bet than Le Da Vida.

A  Mo Reay (7) and Falconet (10) are two with a shot, although less probable than either of the two horses above. A Mo Reay won the similar Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes at this distance in February and won the Grade 1 Beholder Mile, with a 100 figure, beating Pauline’s Pearl handily. However, she regressed when fourth in the La Troienne in May, before finishing third in the three horse field Fleur Di Lis before being place second by the original runner-up, who bumped with A Mo Reay repeatedly in the stretch. In summary, she’s now earned 102 figure in three of her last five and those efforts may be competitive if repeated, but they also appear a cut below the best efforts Pauline’s Pearl and Le Da Vida appear capable of today.

Falconet (10) won the non-graded Groupie Doll Stakes on August 13, a career best effort with a 105 figure. As a four year old she may be able to run even better, and there’s no faulting her career record of five wins and four runner-up efforts in 11 races, just twice finishing worse than second. One of those was in the Du Pont Stakes in May, where Le Da Vida finished a close up third. Although she’s only run in two graded stakes in her career, finishing fourth in one and second in the other (for three year olds only), Falconet could be competitive here and be part of the exacta at the least.

Search Results (4) and Hidden Connection (6) can be considered for second on exacta tickets, and for third if you play trifecta tickets. Search Results has lost ground in the last eighth of a mile in her last three races and in five of her last seven, and appears to be a cut below where she was last year when winning the Molly Pitcher and Ruffian Stakes, although she has been second or third in four of her last five races. Hidden Connection made the lead in the Groupie Doll but was run down by Falconet. She had finished second in the Doubledogdare Stakes at this distance in April and in the Houston Ladies Classic in January and has a 3-4-1 record in her career, which are more reasons to believe she can’t win this race but could complete the exacta or trifecta.

Bets:

Win: Le Da Vida (3) to win at 2 to 1 or more.

Exactas: Pauline’s Pearl (2) and Le Da Vida (3) over Pauline’s Pearl (2), Le Da Vida (3), A Mo Reay (7) and Falconet (10).

Because it will be unlikely we can bet Pauline’s Pearl to win at low odds, we can play additional exacta tickets with her in the win position, as follows: Pauline’s Pearl (2) over Le Da Vida (3), A Mo Reay (7) and Falconet (10).

Trifectas: Pauline’s Pearl (2) and Le Da Vida (3) over Pauline’s Pearl (2), Le Da Vida (3), A Mo Reay (7) and Falconet (10) over Pauline’s Pearl (2), Le Da Vida (3), A Mo Reay (7), Falconet (10), Search Results (4) and Hidden Connection (6).