Race 10 at Kentucky Downs | Saturday September 2 | Post Time 6:28 PM Eastern

Mint Millions Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $2 million | One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

 

Top contenders:

In one of countless tremendously competitive races with big fields at this year’s Kentucky Downs meeting, the Mint Millions drew a strong field of 12. The top four contenders to win appear to be (in post-position order and with starting odds) Stitched (3) 20/1, Gray’s Fable (7) 30/1, Churchtown (8) 4/1 and Annapolis (10) 8/5. With two high odds horses and two low odds horses among the quartet of contenders there are a lot of opportunities for profit in most betting pools.

I’m going to start with the two high odds contenders and cases can be made for both. Stitched (3) has won six of 11 turf starts, including a pair of non-graded stakes last spring and summer. Returning off a 10 month layoff in the spring, Stitched was a non-threatening seventh of 12 in the Shakertown Stakes, a sprint. Still not 100% fit and back to the form shown when winning in 2022, he was fifth of 11 in the Opening Verse Stakes in May, won by Annapolis (10). Still highly regarded even after a ninth of 10 finish in June, Stitched entered the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes, where four time graded stakes winner Set Piece was the even month favorite. Stalking the pacesetter in fourth and about three lengths off the lead for the first six furlongs, Stitched commenced a rally to get up by a head over that pacesetter (Get Smokin), with Set Piece another length back in third, having commenced his rally from last of 10 too late. Since that race, Set Piece returned to win the Arlington Million, while Wise Dan fourth place finisher Hozier improved to win the Kentucky Downs Preview Mint Million Mile last month. Being a four year old and having raced just 12 times, Stitched may have improving to do. The win in the Wise Dan earned him a career-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure. It must be noted last year’s Mint Millions runner-up, Atone (2), earned a 103 figure, and considering Stitched can run even better then when last seen he has every right to post his second graded stakes upset win in a row, not to mention jockey Florent Geroux takes the call and rode the horse to those back-to-back stakes wins in 2022.

Then there’s Gray’s Fable (7), who finished fifth of 8 in this race last year at 18 to 1, beaten under two lengths in spite of breaking in the air at the start. He hasn’t won a race since, but it’s the races where he was close that, if repeated, could see him running a lot better than his double digit odds suggest he will. Of particular note is his June 1 effort in classified allowance company at this mile turf trip at Churchill Downs. He rallied from sixth in that race and made the lead in the stretch, opening up by nearly two lengths before being run down and settling for second. That earned him a career-best 114 figure, tied for the best in the field with Annapolis, who earned that figure winning the Grade 1 Turf Mile Stakes at Keeneland last fall. In his most recent start, in the Preview Turf Mile, Gray’s Fable was sent to post as the tepid 5 to 2 favorite, and although fourth it must be noted he was seven wide into the stretch and missed second by a half-length and a head, with the winner (Hozier) only another half-length in front. Gray’s Fable had been off for two months prior to that, and he did win the Preview Turf Mile on 2022 (called the Evan Williams Turf Mile) with a 111 figure, so there is little doubt if Gray’s Fable can run that race or the one from June 1, he could have a say in the outcome.

Annapolis (10) has only one knock and that is his odds will be prohibitively low, as he’s been 6 to 5 or less in his last three races. He’s amazingly consistent as he’s been first or second in 10 of 11 races, all on grass, including eight graded stakes. On the other hand, he’s finished second in four of those, including two in a row. Granted, Casa Creed, who beat him in those two, is not entered in this race. After returning from a five month layoff and winning the Opening Verse Stakes in May, Annapolis has earned back-to-back 111 figures which are indeed the best recent figures in the field save for the 114 figure Gray’s Fable earned in June. As such, we will try to make a profit if he wins or finishes second by combining him with the higher odds contenders on exacta tickets, and he is a must to use on any double, pick 3 or 4 tickets played involving this race.

Churchtown (8) may have won the Grade 2 Connaught Cup Stakes last time out on July 23 if not for significant traffic trouble twice during the stretch run. He was the 2 to 1 favorite that day based on his head defeat in May to Annapolis in the Opening Verse Stakes. In position to win at the top of the stretch, he was steadied between horses then when clear and rallying fast he nearly hit the rear end of the horse in front of him, settling for fourth at the end. The runner-up from that race, War Bomber, came right back to win the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes, and that, as well as a trip without trouble, bodes very well for the chances of Churchtown to run the best race of his career today. He too is a four year old and has been first or second in five of six turf races, excluding the Connaught Cup.

Honorable mention goes to a number of others, which we will try to use in some way on some exacta tickets as they may offer high odds as well. Those are Atone (2), Hozier (4), Smokin’ T (5) and Ancient Rome (6).

Bets:

Win: As both Stitched (3) and Gray’s Fable (7) are likely to go to post at high odds, both can be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

When I make win bets on horses at high odds, I usually also play what is known as the “exacta as a place bet”, because in most cases if the longshots run second the payoff is much greater than a place bet, even for the $1 minimum threshold. As such, the bet is a $1 Exacta: ALL over Stitched (3) and Gray’s Fable.

Exactas:

Box Stitched (3), Gray’s Fable (7), Churchtown (8) and Annapolis (10).

Then, likely for the minimum $1, we can play additional exactas adding more horses, some at high odds, in the second position:

Stitched (3), Gray’s Fable (7), Churchtown (8) and Annapolis (10) over Atone (2), Stitched (3), Hozier (4), Smokin’ T (5), Ancient Rome (6), Gray’s Fable (7), Churchtown (8) and Annapolis (10).