Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 23 | Post Time 10:42 PM Eastern

Dogwood Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies, Three Years Old

 

Analysis Top contenders:

A decent field of nine three year old filly sprinters signs on here, with six of the nine having won or having finished second in their most recent races and with one of the other two having won one race before last. The most important factor in this race is EARLY PACE, because if all nine go, there’s little doubt three horses which appear to absolutely need the lead for their best chances, maybe four, will hook up early and tire late to set up a pair of key stalkers and closers. The first of the group of horses with that need-the-lead style are Yesternight (1), who gets the rail and who has had the lead in three of her four career starts, so it is likely jockey Graham will have to send. It must be noted that in her one start where she did not have the lead early, a win on July 14, she got the seven post and that enabled the jockey to bide his time in the opening quarter while fourth before moving to lead. Its unlikely Yesternight will be afforded that option from the rail. The next is B G Warrior (4), who wired the field on turf three weeks ago and who earned her other two wins, on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park, leading from start to finish. She’s also led from the start in three of her other last 11 races, before tiring, and she wears blinkers so if very likely to try to lead once again. Lady Radler (5) rounds out the trio of “early” pace types, having earned all four wins leading from the start. She too wears blinkers and must be sent hard from the opening bell. There’s also a question about Norah G (8), who won her last two races leading from start to finish. She earned her first two wins from off the pace so from an outside post like the one Yesternight got in her only off-the-pace win, Norah G can’t be ruled out as having a shot.

Top Contenders:

Still, under almost any scenario I can imagine, Alexa Lou (9), and to a lesser extent Twice as Sweet (7) comprise the bulk of the probability to win. Alexa Lou returned from nine months off, four weeks ago, and picked up where she had left off last November, with a win. She beat older horses in that race and moves to three year olds only here, so combined with making her second start off a layoff can easily improve off a 96 Equibase Speed Figure effort which is the fastest last race figure (on dirt) by any horse in the field, AND faster than the 90 figure earned by the winner of the Audubon Oaks last month, who does not run here, but Oaks second and third place finishers, Flamand (3) and Santa Fe Gold (6) do run here and ran more slowly than Alexa Lou. Alexa Lou gets a good post to avoid any early traffic and can watch the speed duel unfold before rallying to get up by a neck or so as she did in her last two races.

Twice as Tweet (7) ran nearly as well winning a dirt sprint on June 14 as Alexa Lou did winning that dirt sprint near the end of August. Twice as Sweet won that race, also versus older similar to Alexa Lou, by nearly five lengths after sitting off the pace in second in the early stages, and she’s won from third early and closed from seventh to second in her most recent race, a sprint on turf. She too gets a great post to watch the pacesetters battle and it must be noted that last race, on July 16, produced two strong next out winners, including one recently at Churchill Downs on the main track.

Bets:

Win: We should consider a win bet on Alexa Lou (9) at odds of  2 to 1 or more and ALSO (because morning line favorites Yesternight and Flamand are vulnerable) consider a win bet on Twice as Sweet (7) at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas: Alexa Lou (9) and Twice As Sweet (7) over Alexa Lou (9), Twice As Sweet (7), Yesternight (1), Flamand (3), Santa Fe Gold (6) and Norah G (8).