Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 28 | Post Time 10:40 PM Eastern

Lukas Classic Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

Cooke Creek (4) appears to be another very sharp claim by Mike Maker as the horse won two in a row since being claimed for $40K in May out of a strong win at a mile and one-sixteenth here at Churchill Downs. He won right back one month later at the second allowance condition, easily clearing by five lengths with a career-best 110 Equibase Speed Figure which is certainly good enough to win this grade two race if repeated. That win was also here at Churchill Downs at a mile and one-sixteenth, then he shipped to Saratoga and stretched out to this mile and one-eighth trip for a classified allowance race. He was winless in seven tries at nine furlongs prior to that, but in his first try at the trip for Maker he won easily. He has won on fast or sloppy and he has won on the lead and from just off the pace, but with none of the three horses inside in the gate having ever shown interest in leading early, it’s highly likely Saez will put Cooke Creek on the front end from the start from where he will get very courageous and not be caught.

Hit Show (6) won in May at Churchill Downs at this nine-furlong trip, at a similar allowance level to Cooke Creek when winning on August 15, earning a 103 Equibase Speed Figure which he bettered to 105 last month winning the Grade 3 West Virginia Governor’s Stakes. Gerox was up for both wins and rides back and the colt did win back-to-back (in December ’22 and February ’23) so has a shot to run another “A” race good enough to win. 

Warrior Johny (8) gets Jose Ortiz for the first time, which is extremely interesting as Ortiz rode Cooke Creek to all three of his recent wins. This is likely because this horse comes from the powerful Bauer barn, which has won several stakes this year and for which Ortiz has been up for three among 10 starts. The horse’s last two races were really poor efforts, but three back he won a classified allowance race (the same level Cooke Creek won at in June) at this nine furlong trip, with a very strong 113 figure, and Bauer may have Warrior Johny back in that kind of form based on two exceptional workouts here at Churchill Downs (where he’s earned two of his four career wins). The first of those was on 9/7 and it was the BEST Of 131 for a half mile, and he followed that up seven days later with another big half-mile workout (47.2) which was third best of 105 on the day. If he returns to his July form, he could post the upset win.

Win Bets: I think we should bet two of these three to win, at the highest odds, and at these minimums:

Cooke Creek (4) at 2 to 1 or more

Hit Show (6) at 3 to 1 or more.

Warrior Johny (8) at 7 to 2 or more.

Exactas: Box Cooke Creek (4), Hit Show (6) and Warrior Johny (8)