Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 30 | Post Time 5:29 PM Eastern

Lukas Classic Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward

 

Analysis and Top contenders:

The race appears to go through favorite, Rattle N Roll (4), who opens at 7 to 5 odds.

But does it really?

Rattle N Roll (4) won the Grade 3 Blame Stakes at this nine furlong trip in June, at odds of 8 to 5, before a half-length defeat in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes in July. However, he didn’t show up as the 9 to 5 favorite last month in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, never rallying as he had in those two previous races. Was it the fact he shipped from Kentucky to New York, the different surface at Saratoga, or something else, which led to that disappointing effort? To me it really doesn’t matter, because setting aside the Foster, where the pace was blazing fast (1:10.8 for six furlongs), possibly inflating the 116 Equibase Speed Figure he earned that day, Rattle N Roll earned 106, 107, 105 and 106 figures in his other three “A” races this year. Those are NOT STANDOUT figures or efforts here, with every one of the other eight horses In this race having run as fast in at least one race this year. As such, I’m taking a stand against Rattle N Roll at a short price, and looking for value with other horses which have every bit as much probability to win, and at higher odds.

First among those is Warrant (3), who opens at 8 to 1. He’s won at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile and one-half, and he’s banked $1.1 million, which compares favorably with the $1.7 million Rattle N Roll has earned as well as the $1.2 million American Revolution (9) has earned. Warrant has won at Churchill Downs and he enters the race in top form, having battled head and head down the length of the stretch in the Governor’s Cup Stakes at Remington Park last month. He takes blinkers off to perhaps help him to see his opponent compared to that last race, and he’s reunited with Florent Geroux, not only the #1 winning jockey for the Brad Cox barn, but also having ridden Warrant to victory the only last time he was in the saddle, in January. Warrant also has one very important thing in common with Rattle N Roll, in that he finished second (beaten a head) in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap (last year), similar to Rattle N Roll having finished second in the Stephen Foster in July. Last but not least, Warrant gets the three post in the gate, with the two horses inside of him possessing no desire to lead. Five Star General (8) should have the lead early as he’s the quickest, which puts Geroux in the catbird seat of stalking the likely early leader before launching a bid in the stretch.

Trademark (5) and Five Star General (8) are two horses I believe we must consider for win bets so we won’t be kicking ourselves after the race, as both open at double digit odds and are very competitive.

Trademark has won three of four races at Churchill Downs in his career, and has won at this nine furlong trip. He won the Schaefer Memorial Stakes in July, beating Five Star General by a length and one-half, then he led late and came up a half-length short to Whelen Springs (7), who also opens at double digit odds, in the Iselin Stakes in August. Martin Garcia rode Trademark to back to back wins last October and November including the one at this distance, with the other coming in the $300,000 Commonwealth Stakes on the main track, and the horse has excellent tactical speed so could be close to Warrant in the early stages and give that one a battle down to the wire.

Similarly, Five Star General (8) can’t be dismissed. He will be discounted by many bettors as he ships in from Washington State, but he’s a traveler, who has won at Keeneland, Evangeline Downs and Emerald Downs. He’s won at this distance, and he’s won with Lanerie in the saddle, who rides him today. With 10 wins in 30 races and over $600K in the bank, this horse is no slouch, and he put in a strong four furlong workout recently in preparation for the race, adding the likelihood he will go for the lead as he did when winning the Evangeline Mile in April. In case another horse wants the lead more than he does, that’s not a problem either, as he won the Longacres Mile after stalking in second for the first half mile. 

As to the other likely betting favorite, American Revolution (9), who opens at 5 to 2, I feel the same away about his chances as I do the chances of Rattle N Roll. American Revolution won five of his first seven races, including the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, but that was 2021, not 2023. He went zero-for-three last year (with two seconds) and in his only start this year, in August, American Revolution finished fourth as the odds-on favorite. He did stumble in that race, but that does not really tell us if this is the same horse at the age of five who was so powerful at the age of three and he’ll have to prove it in this field, which may be problematic.

Bets:

Win: Warrant (3) can be bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

We can also consider win bets, for lesser amounts (because the odds will be higher) on both Trademark (5) and Five Star General (8) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas: As Warrant finishes second (six times) as much as he wins (5 times) he is a good horse to key on exacta tickets as follows: 3 over 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

(#4 is Rattle N Roll, #5 is Trademark, #6 is Blue Devil, #7 is Whelen Springs, #8 is Five Star General, #9 is American Revolution).

Then, to maximize profit I will box Warrant with four other contenders at high odds:

Box Warrant (3) and Trademark (5), Warrant (3) and Blue Devil (6), Warrant (3) and Whelen Springs (7), Warrant (3) and Five Star General (8).

Optionally we can also play an exacta box between Trademark (5) and Five Star General (8) as it would pay handsomely if it comes in.