Buy TicketsRace 10 at Kentucky Downs | Saturday September 7 | Post Time 5:55 PM Eastern
Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $2 Million | One Mile and One-Half on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward
How the race may be run in the early stages could have a big impact on which horses have the best chance to win so it is very important to consider which horses have an “early” running style which means they are likely to want to lead from the start. Get Smokin (4) won the 2023 Turf Cup when leading from start to finish, which is the same way he won the United Nations Stakes last month and the same way he earned his previous three wins, two with jockey De La Cruz in the saddle. Considering that strategy has been a winning one, it is likely Get Smokin and De La Cruz will use it once again. However, there’s another ‘need the lead’ type in the field and that is Balladeer (8), who earned his last two wins after leading every step of the way. Balladeer also has led from the start though the first mile in each of his last eight races.
If both Balladeer and Get Smokin run as expected and battle for the lead, even if they run more slowly than average for this type of race, it is highly probable the mental energy of running next to each other, instead of being on a clear lead, could take its toll. In that case both could be susceptible to being passed in the last quarter mile. Despite this being a mile and one-half marathon (in racing terms) horses don’t often come from the last half of the field so the horses best able to stalk Get Smokin and Balladeer for the first mile, or even the first mile and one-quarter, have a big shot to succeed.
Main win contenders:
The top two in that group are Sugoi (5) and Cathkin Peak (3) and both are trained by Mike Maker, who has won six of the last 10 editions of the Turf Cup, most recently in 2022 with Red Knight and before that in 2019 with Zulu Alpha. Maker gets the services of two of the top five jockeys in North America, Irad Ortiz, Jr. (second) and his brother Jose (fourth), who combined have won 415 races to date in 2024, with their horses having earned $38 million in prize money. A quick check of Race Lens statistics reveals that over the last five years, when the Ortiz brothers ride for Maker in stakes races on grass at similar distances to this race, they have won seven of 29 (25%) and finished in the top three in 13 of 29 races (45%). Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Sugoi for the first time while Jose Ortiz rode Cathkin Peak for the first time in the horse’s most recent race on August 21, winning the John’s Call Stakes on the grass at a distance one-eighth farther than this one.
As notable, both Sugoi and Cathkin Peak were recent purchases by Maker, who has a keen eye for horses which may be able to succeed in these types of marathon turf races even if they have never run these long-distance races previously. Cathkin Peak is a perfect example, as before the John's Call he had never run as far in 19 races before June 19 of this year when Maker purchased him for $80,000, earning $74,000 for the win in his first start for Maker. Similarly, Maker purchased Sugoi for $50,000 in April and the horse immediately ran one mile and one-half for the first time, winning the Louisville Stakes, with the $148,920 winner’s share resulting in nearly a $100,000 profit right off the bat.
Both Sugoi and Cathkin Peak can win on the lead or from off the pace and so are likely to be relaxed in mid-pack in the early stages, with either or both launching bids when the pace quickens with about a quarter mile to run. Of the pair, I give Sugoi slight preference as his best recent effort, when second in the Chorleywood Stakes, earned a 114 Equibase Speed Figure. Cathkin Peak earned his best speed figure of 2024, 107, winning the John’s Call and can certainly run as well or better in his second start since moving to the Maker barn.
Chief Little Rock (11) ships in from Europe for world renowned trainer Aiden O’Brien, who over the last five years has a pretty solid record of 7-4-4 in 25 races with horses running in North America who last started overseas. A son of Galileo, one of the top sires in the world, there is no doubt the horse can run well at this distance. Although Chief Little Rock ran poorly when 12th of 14 in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, he won the Gallinule Stakes in May with a 107 figure which tells us he fits with these. Frankie Dettori, who has already won three of 11 races this year at Kentucky Downs, takes the mount and we can expect Chief Little Rock to be competitive at this level and distance.
One of the other two horses which deserve mention and that is Tawny Port (7), who must be considered a horse who can be in the top three. His career record is 5-3-4 in 21 races and on turf 1-2-3 in nine races but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In four of his last five races, Tawny Port has been beaten a neck or less, with back-to-back 114 figure efforts, most recently when finishing just a head and nose behind Get Smokin in the United Nations. Tawny Port won the mile and five-eighths John’s Call Stakes in 2023 with a 108 figure, the same race Cathkin Peak won last month with a 107 figure, so if we consider Cathkin Peak a contender, we must also not discount the chances of Tawny Port to run well in this race.
Integration (2) is an improving four-year-old who still has better races ahead of him. That may be important as his career-best effort to date came four weeks ago when second in the Arlington Million, which followed a six length win one month earlier. He went from a 101-figure effort three races back to 108 then to 116 last time out and that figure is on par with Sugoi’s 114 best effort so if Integration continues to mature, he certainly can win, and he may be the betting favorite as his starting odds are the lowest in the field.
Win Bets:
Considering the reward for the risk on both Sugoi (5) and Cathkin Peak (3), we should consider betting both to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
The best way to maximize profit is to key Sugoi (5) and Cathkin Peak (3) in the first and second position with the other contenders. The tickets look like this:
Sugoi (5), Cathkin Peak (3) over Sugoi (5), Cathkin Peak (3), Chief Little Rock (11), Tawny Port (7), Integration (2)
Sugoi (5), Cathkin Peak (3), Chief Little Rock (11), Tawny Port (7), Integration (2) over Sugoi (5), Cathkin Peak (3)
Optionally, box Sugoi (5), Cathkin Peak (3), Chief Little Rock (11), Tawny Port (7) and Integration (2)