Race 12 at Kentucky Downs | Saturday September 9 | Post Time 7:05 PM Eastern

Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $1.7 million | One Mile and One Half on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

 

Analysis and Top contenders:

Three trainers who have entrants in this race have proven to have their horses ready for this mile and one-half test over the past 10 years. Paulo Lobo, who saddles Nautilus (9), won this race in 2021 with Imperador. However, Nautilus has just an allowance win to his credit in four starts since coming to the U.S. and that was on dirt. Chris Block won this race in 2014 with Suntracer and will have Another Mystery (10) this year. Another Mystery finished third in this race last year, beaten just a neck for the win. I’ll have more to say about him later.

Then there’s trainer Mike Maker, with five wins in the past 10 years, including Red Knight (2) last year, who returns to defend his crown off a third place finish in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes in July. In addition to Red Knight, Maker also entered Therapist (11) and Me and Mr. C (6), with Therapist having just won the United Nations and with Me and Mr. C recently winning the Kentucky Cup Preview Turf Cup Stakes.

Among the group above, Me and Mr. C (6) is the most intriguing as he enters the Turf Cup on a three race winning streak and has now won 10 of 33 starts in his career. Jockey Gerardo Corrales has ridden Me and Mr. C in his last two races and stays aboard, although he was the one who guided Red Knight to win the 2022 Turf Cup. Additionally, Me and Mr. C appears to be on the same pattern as Red Knight last year. Me and Mr. C earned a 96 Equibase Speed Figure winning in June, then improved to 103 with his victory in July before earning a career-best 109 figure taking the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup last month. Last year, Red Knight earned a 108 figure in his previous start before a 112 figure when victorious in this race. As such, Me and Mr. C appears capable of posting the upset win just as his stablemate Red Knight did in this race last year.

Verstappen (3) proved he belongs in the top turf marathon division with a strong win this past April in the Elkhorn Stakes, which earned a career best 112 figure at the mile and one-half distance of the Turf Cup. Prior to that he won two races in a row at a mile and one-quarter and finished second in the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes at the shorter distance of one mile and one-eighth. Following a seventh place finish behind Red Knight in the Man O’War Stakes in May, Verstappen was beaten only a little over a length by Me and Mr. C in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup in July, then improved to be second at the end of that month in the Bowling Green Stakes, earning a 107 figure which suggests he is ready to take another step forward as he stretches out back to the distance of the Elkhorn.

Red Knight (2) has now banked over $1.8 million, winning 12 of 33 career races on turf. Two races after winning this race last year, Red Knight won the William L. McKnight Stakes at the distance with a 113 figure similar to the 112 earned in the 2022 Turf Cup. Then two races later he won the Man O’War stakes. In his most recent race on July 22 in the United Nations Stakes, Red Knight was last of eight for most of the race but managed to pass a number of horses and finish third. That race was a mile and three-eighths, so now returning to his favorite distance of a mile and one-half, where he has won or placed six times, Red Knight has a strong chance to become the third horse in history to win this race in back-to-back years, following in the footsteps of Rochester (2002-2003) and Da Big Hoss (2015-2016).

Other possibilities, particularly for exacta bets:

Another Mystery (10), who rallied from 10^th of 12 last year to miss winning by a nose and a neck at 15 to 1, hasn’t won since so has now not won since June of 2022 going back nine races. However, he can close well late, has been first or second in five of 12 races at this 12 furlong trip, and could be part of the exacta at high odds. Kitodan (7) is another interesting horse, with North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. named to ride. Ortiz, Jr. also is named to ride also-eligible Higher Honors (15) for Chad Brown, so if that one gets into the race Kitodan will be looking for another jockey. However, Kitodan deserves a look no matter who rides him as he had a horribly trip just 10 days ago at Kentucky Downs in the Tapit Stakes or might have been a lot closer than seventh, and he has a won over the course. Santin (4) has won four of 12 on grass including the Arlington Million last month, but that was at a mile and one-quarter and he’s never run this far, although his pedigree suggests he can. It must be noted Tyler Gaffalione, who has ridden the horse in 10 of his last 12 races, including two wins and two second place finishes, gets off to ride Red Knight. Cellist (14) has the credentials to be competitive if he gets in from the also-eligible list, as he won the similar Louisville Stakes at 12 furlongs in 2021 and was just second, beaten only a neck, by Me and Mr. C. In these situations where I like one horse coming out of a particular race and another was close behind, it is difficult to ignore the other horse. Therapist (11) and Spooky Chanel (12) are two more who might run well though I think they are a cut below the top three in terms of probability to win. Each has 13 career wins, almost exclusively on grass. Therapist just won the United Nations Stakes and at the age of eight is the same age Red Knight was last year when winning this race off another stakes win. Spooky Channel has never run at Kentucky Downs but has won three of six lifetime at the distance on turf, including the similar Sycamore Stakes at Keeneland. He ran poorly in the race won by Me and Mr. C last month but has rebounded off poor efforts in the past and a horse which has won nearly half of his total races (13 for 30) may be difficult to discount as a contender.

Bets:

Win: Me and Mr. C (6) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

The same minimum/fair odds of 3 to 1 apply to Verstappen (3) and to Red Knight (2) but they open at much lower odds than Me and Mr. C and might not offer the same return for the risk.

Exactas: Red Knight (2), Verstappen (3) and Me and Mr. C (6) over Red Knight (2), Verstappen (3), Me and Mr. C (6), Santin (4), Kitodan (7), Therapist (11), Spooky Channel (12) and Cellist (14).